294
FXUS64 KEWX 311744 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
- PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A DRYLINE THAT MOVED INTO OUR WESTERN
AREAS ON SUNDAY HAS BEEN PUSHED WEST OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER IT WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG, SOME LOCALLY DENSE, ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS, THE FOG WILL LIFT LEAVING A STRATUS DECK
THAT GRADUALLY MIXES TO A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY LATER IN THE
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE
PATTERN, THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY,
RANGING FROM 70S NORTHEAST TO 90S, POSSIBLY NEAR 100, SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST, THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT POTENTIAL
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE
THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT INTERSECT ALONG WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU DUE TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS.
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
DRYLINE RETREATING TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALLOWS STRATUS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THEN, SOUTHERLY FLOW MIXES TO THE SURFACE ON
TUESDAY RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 80S EAST TO 90S WEST. THE DRYLINE
MAY MIX TO THE EAST INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON TO
GENERATE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THERE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- HUMID WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASING (50-70%) FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND
LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SEVERAL MODELS HAVE COME
THROUGH SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY). ADDITIONALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE NBM 1D VIEWER AREAS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAVE A VERY GOOD SHOT(40-50%) OF HITTING
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS. WITH BOTH SAN ANTONIO (70-90%) AND
AUSTIN (65-85%) HAVING HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES TO HIT 90 DEGREES OR
HIGHER AS WELL. GIVEN THAT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP
BOTH DAYS COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT THE NBM HAS JUST BEEN TOO LOW
THESE PAST COUPLE TIMES WHEN THIS SETUP UP FORMS, DECIDED TO RAISE
POPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE HEAT LOOKING TO PEAK
WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ALBEIT STILL IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST AREAS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE 65-70 RANGE COUPLED WITH MID TO UPPER 90S,
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT TO FEEL AROUND 100 DEGREES. ADDITIONALLY,
TEMPS DON'T COOL ALL THAT MUCH WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM AND IMPACT AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY, NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR AND EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL
PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY TRYING TO PUSH ITS
WAY THROUGH OUR AREA BUT IT LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE EITHER OVER
CENTRAL TX OR FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY THUS BECOMING THE
FOCUS FOR A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS SOME AREAS COULD BE
LOOKING AT SOME DECENT BUT MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THAT MAY VERY WELL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES CAME IN QUITE A BIT LOWER ON MOST MODELS DUE
TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 80S AND UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST AS NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH IF
AT ALL COME SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS
MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AFTER 07Z AT ALL SITES ALONG WITH A
SHOT AT IFR CEILINGS AT DRT NEAR SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. VFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 59 83 69 91 / 0 0 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 56 83 69 90 / 0 0 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 60 85 68 93 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 83 68 89 / 0 0 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 94 69 99 / 0 10 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 55 83 68 89 / 0 0 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 88 67 95 / 0 0 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 58 83 68 91 / 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 81 70 87 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 84 69 92 / 0 0 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 86 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...MMM
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