060
FXUS64 KEWX 010716
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
216 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND HOT WEDNESDAY
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. THE FLOW STRENGTHENS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LEADING TO BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS. THE
STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND MIDDAY LEADING TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE DRYLINE DRIFTS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
PERSISTING KEEPING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS ISOLATED. HOWEVER, SHOULD
ANY STORMS DEVELOP, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LARGE MUCAPE, AND
STRONG SHEAR AND SRH, THEY WOULD BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
THE SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
EXCEPTION BEING, THE DRYLINE MIXES ACROSS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY,
EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY TO BRING A
HOTTER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS TO THOSE AREAS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE DIFFERENCE BEING, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SAME THREATS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY INTO OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES.
ALSO, THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS LOWERS MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH
OR LESS ALLOWING FOR ONLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
- COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE VAL VERDE COUNTY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVES OVER THAT AREA AND THE DRY LINE PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.
CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS LEE AND FAYETTE COUNTIES EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE PACIFIC FRONT STAYS STATIONARY OVER EAST-
CENTRAL TEXAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE DRY LINE PUSHES ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE/SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA. THE CAP HOLDS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY AND ERODES LATE AFTERNOON PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IF THAT
HAPPENS, THEN EXPECT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH MAIN SEVERE HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BETTER CHANCES TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SENDS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE, THE PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT AS THE PACIFIC FRONT LINGERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO
NORTH TEXAS AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGHS ARE GOING TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL CLIMATE VALUES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, HOWEVER, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THE PUSH OF A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO OVERRUN AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE BRINGING LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CIGS. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY AS BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE HOLD WITH A SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
MVFR CIGS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 69 88 72 / 0 10 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 68 87 70 / 0 10 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 68 91 70 / 0 0 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 84 68 88 70 / 0 10 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 70 97 68 / 10 10 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 84 68 87 70 / 0 10 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 68 88 70 / 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 70 86 72 / 0 0 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 71 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...17
AVIATION...04
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