796
FXUS64 KEWX 220222 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
922 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF BEXAR
COUNTY IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND LOW TO UPPER 40S OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. LOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING OVER MOST PART OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF
THE HIRES MODEL DATA COMING IN ARE SHOWING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG FORMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
TALKING POINTS:
- HUMIDITY SURGES BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. THE STALLED FRONT
CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT,
LEADING TO A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CURRENT DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND
A FEW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND A FEW CAMS ARE
DEVELOPING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
FARTHER WEST, DRY LINE CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TRANS PECOS, AS WELL AS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. WE WILL WATCH FOR THIS UPSTREAM CONVECTION
TO POTENTIALLY MAKE IT INTO THE RIO GRANDE, SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500-200 J/KG COINCIDING WITH AROUND 50-60KT OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR ACROSS THESE REGIONS TUESDAY EVENING WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE, SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY IN A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS MODIFYING INTO THE
60S TO LOW 70S WITH THE RETURN OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 80S AND MUGGY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
TALKING POINTS:
- GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- COVERAGE AND QPF TRENDS SHIFTING TO REDUCED CHANCES AND STORM
TOTALS.
SOME OF THE ECM AND CMC RUNS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SUGGESTED
60-85 PERCENT COVERAGE OF RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SO
NATURALLY THE NBM FAVORS THE HIGHER CHANCES. WE SHAVED OFF THE POPS
FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT THIS IS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE SOME MCV DRIVEN ACTIVITY THAT TYPICALLY RESULTS
IN MORE BENIGN PERIODS, AND LOWER OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS. ABSENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MCV ACTIVITY, THE BROAD PATTERN OF SW FLOW ALOFT OVER TX
SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH DAYTIME FRIDAY, WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL EACH DAY. LATE FRIDAY SHOULD SEE THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
TREND TO MORE RIDGE DOMINATED WITH LOWERING CHANCES FOR RAIN GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT BE ZERO AND THE DEEP
ONSHORE FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORNING STREAMER SHOWER AS
UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER TX INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE GOOD HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA, WE SHOULD ONLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. AFTERWARD, MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE FORECASTED FOR ALL
AREA SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT REDUCED
VISIBILITY AROUND DAWN TO 14Z TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING,
HOWEVER, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND STAYING THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES ON TUESDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS ACROSS KDRT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 88 69 84 / 0 30 30 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 89 68 83 / 0 30 30 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 89 68 85 / 0 30 30 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 86 67 82 / 0 20 40 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 89 70 86 / 10 30 60 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 64 89 67 82 / 0 20 30 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 88 67 83 / 0 20 40 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 64 88 68 83 / 0 30 30 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 87 69 84 / 0 40 30 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 87 70 84 / 0 30 30 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 89 70 85 / 0 30 30 50
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...17
LONG-TERM...05
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page