711
FXUS64 KEWX 220543
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF BEXAR
COUNTY IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND LOW TO UPPER 40S OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. LOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING OVER MOST PART OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF
THE HIRES MODEL DATA COMING IN ARE SHOWING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG FORMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
TALKING POINTS:
- HUMIDITY SURGES BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. THE STALLED FRONT
CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT,
LEADING TO A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CURRENT DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND
A FEW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND A FEW CAMS ARE
DEVELOPING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
FARTHER WEST, DRY LINE CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TRANS PECOS, AS WELL AS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. WE WILL WATCH FOR THIS UPSTREAM CONVECTION
TO POTENTIALLY MAKE IT INTO THE RIO GRANDE, SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500-200 J/KG COINCIDING WITH AROUND 50-60KT OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR ACROSS THESE REGIONS TUESDAY EVENING WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE, SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY IN A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS MODIFYING INTO THE
60S TO LOW 70S WITH THE RETURN OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 80S AND MUGGY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
TALKING POINTS:
- GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- COVERAGE AND QPF TRENDS SHIFTING TO REDUCED CHANCES AND STORM
TOTALS.
SOME OF THE ECM AND CMC RUNS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SUGGESTED
60-85 PERCENT COVERAGE OF RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SO
NATURALLY THE NBM FAVORS THE HIGHER CHANCES. WE SHAVED OFF THE POPS
FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT THIS IS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE SOME MCV DRIVEN ACTIVITY THAT TYPICALLY RESULTS
IN MORE BENIGN PERIODS, AND LOWER OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS. ABSENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MCV ACTIVITY, THE BROAD PATTERN OF SW FLOW ALOFT OVER TX
SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH DAYTIME FRIDAY, WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL EACH DAY. LATE FRIDAY SHOULD SEE THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
TREND TO MORE RIDGE DOMINATED WITH LOWERING CHANCES FOR RAIN GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT BE ZERO AND THE DEEP
ONSHORE FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORNING STREAMER SHOWER AS
UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER TX INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE GOOD HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA, WE SHOULD ONLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE RETURNING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT
QUICK DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, WESTERN HILL COUNTRY, AND COASTAL PLAINS.
WITH THE MOISTURE, LOW TOPPED SHOWERS COULD ESTABLISH FROM LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING BUT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ELECTED TO ADD IN PROB30
GROUPS WITH -TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 69 84 69 / 20 40 60 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 68 84 68 / 20 40 60 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 84 69 / 30 40 50 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 82 68 / 20 50 60 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 70 85 72 / 30 40 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 68 83 68 / 20 40 60 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 84 68 / 20 40 40 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 84 68 / 30 30 60 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 70 84 70 / 30 30 60 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 69 83 71 / 30 30 50 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 85 71 / 30 40 50 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...17
LONG-TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...BRADY
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