864
FXUS64 KEWX 222014
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS REGION. WITH CONTINUED HEATING, SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED MAY DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND AN EARLIER UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST WAS MADE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OTHER AREA THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. CU IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SERRANIAS DEL
BURRO MOUNTAINS AND WITH NOTED INSTABILITY ON RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSIS, THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE ARE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS NOTED AMONG THE
HI-RES MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THERE WILL BE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
MOVE EASTWARD, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE THE MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. SUSPECT THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AREA MAY SEE AN
MCS ROLL THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CLIPPING PART OF
THE HILL COUNTRY. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE, WITH
VAL VERDE AND FAR NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) AND THE HILL COUNTRY IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY
WHAT OCCURS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW, WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND A LITTLE BELOW
THE NBM AND SHOW MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE HILL COUNTRY
EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE DRYLINE
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE NBM POP NUMBERS LOOK
TOO HIGH AND HAVE OPTED TO GO A LITTLE BELOW BASED ON TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO DECREASE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY FOR NOW
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION, A COLD
FRONT COULD MOVE IN JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD AND ADD
AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
CIGS ALONG I-35 HAVE TRENDED BACK TO VFR AS CLOUD BASES LIFT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MONITORING
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO SEE IF THIS ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA FOR THE I-35 SITES BETWEEN 22-02Z.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, LOW CLOUDS
RETURN WITH MVFR, THEN IFR CIGS. WE HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE PROB30
GROUP FOR TSRA ALONG I-35 FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS HI-RES MODELS
DO NOT SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF POSSIBLE MCS. WE DID OPT
TO ADD A PROB30 FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON GIVEN PASSING UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING. OUT WEST AT DRT, MVFR CLOUDS PERSIST
FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO MONITORING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TO THE WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA BETWEEN 00-06Z.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN TO DRT AFTER 06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 83 69 87 / 30 50 20 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 83 68 86 / 30 50 20 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 69 87 / 30 50 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 82 67 84 / 30 50 30 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 87 71 88 / 30 20 40 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 82 67 85 / 30 50 30 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 83 68 86 / 30 40 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 83 68 87 / 30 50 20 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 84 70 86 / 20 50 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 83 70 86 / 30 50 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 85 71 88 / 30 40 20 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...PLATT
AVIATION...PLATT
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