386
FXUS64 KEWX 230520
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1220 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
WE HAVE ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161 FOR THE EASTERN PART OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY UNTIL 7 AM. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF WARNINGS IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS REGION. WITH CONTINUED HEATING, SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED MAY DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND AN EARLIER UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST WAS MADE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OTHER AREA THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. CU IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SERRANIAS DEL
BURRO MOUNTAINS AND WITH NOTED INSTABILITY ON RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSIS, THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE ARE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS NOTED AMONG THE
HI-RES MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THERE WILL BE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
MOVE EASTWARD, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE THE MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. SUSPECT THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AREA MAY SEE AN
MCS ROLL THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CLIPPING PART OF
THE HILL COUNTRY. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE, WITH
VAL VERDE AND FAR NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) AND THE HILL COUNTRY IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY
WHAT OCCURS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW, WE HAVE OPTED TO TREND A LITTLE BELOW
THE NBM AND SHOW MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE HILL COUNTRY
EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE DRYLINE
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE NBM POP NUMBERS LOOK
TOO HIGH AND HAVE OPTED TO GO A LITTLE BELOW BASED ON TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO DECREASE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY FOR NOW
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION, A COLD
FRONT COULD MOVE IN JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD AND ADD
AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
ALL TERMINALS ARE STILL VFR, BUT SHOULD BE DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
LATE MORNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 69 87 69 / 50 20 50 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 68 86 68 / 50 20 50 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 84 69 87 69 / 50 20 40 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 67 84 68 / 50 30 50 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 87 71 88 72 / 20 40 40 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 67 85 68 / 50 30 50 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 68 86 69 / 40 20 30 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 68 87 69 / 50 20 50 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 70 86 70 / 50 20 40 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 70 86 71 / 50 20 40 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 71 88 71 / 40 20 40 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...05
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...PLATT
AVIATION...05
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