653
FXUS64 KEWX 230721
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
221 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH UVALDE
COUNTY. THIS STORM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR, BUT HAS THUS FAR
EVADED ANY POPULATED AREAS. THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN SEVERE FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
TO ZAVALA AND FRIO COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER VAL
VERDE COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH HILL COUNTRY THIS MORNING
WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE CELLS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY STILL BE
ACTIVE EAST OF I-35 BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IT IS
MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LARGE HAIL
ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MAY ZAP THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND OVERWORK THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
WOULD DECREASE STORM CHANCES. HOWEVER, IF LOCAL INSTABILITY DOES
MAINTAIN, THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. AT THIS TIME, WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST CALLS FOR MEDIUM
(30% TO 60%) CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LULL IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND NO STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH STORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING OFF THE DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GET ACTIVE AGAIN. THE LOW
LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WARM, MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE GULF.
ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THE REGION AND GENERATE CONVECTION.
THE MOST CAPE WILL BE OUT WEST, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
MODERATE AT BEST. SPC HAS INCLUDED VAL VERDE COUNTY IN THE MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE
MAJORITY AND THE LOW 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TODAY. EXPECT THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY FALL TO THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES TONIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
- ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR AREA ESPECIALLY
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH THE DRYLINE AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST
WILL GENERATE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AT TIMES. THE
BEST CHANCES (30 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE ON FRIDAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES (10 TO 20 PERCENT) THURSDAY EVENING, SATURDAY,
MONDAY NIGHT, AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO MUCAPE AROUND
2,000 J/KG. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM, ALMOST SUMMER LIKE (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY), TEMPERATURES THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
ALL TERMINALS ARE STILL VFR, BUT SHOULD BE DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
LATE MORNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 69 85 70 / 50 30 60 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 68 86 69 / 50 30 50 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 69 86 69 / 50 20 40 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 68 83 67 / 40 30 50 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 72 87 71 / 20 30 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 84 68 85 68 / 40 30 60 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 68 86 69 / 40 20 30 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 68 86 69 / 50 20 50 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 70 86 70 / 50 30 40 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 70 86 71 / 50 20 40 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 71 87 71 / 50 10 30 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...05
LONG-TERM...04
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page