030
FXUS64 KEWX 231811
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
111 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 756 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
WE HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG HIGHWAY 77 INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION. WE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
MENTIONED AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. WE WILL
MONITOR INCOMING MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO
ADJUST AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER VAL
VERDE COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH HILL COUNTRY THIS MORNING
WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE CELLS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY STILL BE
ACTIVE EAST OF I-35 BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IT IS
MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LARGE HAIL
ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MAY ZAP THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND OVERWORK THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
WOULD DECREASE STORM CHANCES. HOWEVER, IF LOCAL INSTABILITY DOES
MAINTAIN, THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING. AT THIS TIME, WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST CALLS FOR MEDIUM
(30% TO 60%) CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LULL IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND NO STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH STORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING OFF THE DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GET ACTIVE AGAIN. THE LOW
LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WARM, MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE GULF.
ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THE REGION AND GENERATE CONVECTION.
THE MOST CAPE WILL BE OUT WEST, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
MODERATE AT BEST. SPC HAS INCLUDED VAL VERDE COUNTY IN THE MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE
MAJORITY AND THE LOW 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TODAY. EXPECT THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY FALL TO THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES TONIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
- ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR AREA ESPECIALLY
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH THE DRYLINE AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST
WILL GENERATE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AT TIMES. THE
BEST CHANCES (30 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE ON FRIDAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES (10 TO 20 PERCENT) THURSDAY EVENING, SATURDAY,
MONDAY NIGHT, AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO MUCAPE AROUND
2,000 J/KG. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM, ALMOST SUMMER LIKE (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY), TEMPERATURES THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
EARLIER BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED DAYTIME HEATING TO
HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ARE IN STORE FOR SAT AND SSF, WITH
MVFR PERSISTING LONGER AT DRT. CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE I-35 SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL KEEP A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA ALONG I-35
BETWEEN 20-24Z FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION. OUT WEST AT DRT, WE WILL ALSO
HOLD ON TO A PROB30 FOR TSRA BETWEEN 01-06Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
BY LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED ALONG I-35, WITH SOME MVFR AND IFR AT DRT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 70 86 70 / 30 30 40 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 69 86 69 / 40 30 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 70 88 70 / 40 10 30 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 68 83 68 / 30 30 40 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 72 87 71 / 10 30 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 84 68 86 68 / 30 30 40 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 68 86 68 / 20 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 68 87 68 / 40 20 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 70 86 70 / 60 20 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 70 86 71 / 30 10 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 71 88 72 / 30 10 20 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...76
AVIATION...PLATT
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