566
FXUS64 KEWX 231938
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
238 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SHORT TERM...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE EARLY MORNING RAINS HAS BEEN WORKED
OVER/STABILIZED DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR. HOWEVER,
EARLIER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO
THE NEARBY RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED
HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON TO
KEEP SOME 20-30% RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. WHILE A STRONG STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER SETUP FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR (~40KT). SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD DEL RIO DURING THE EVENING
HOURS, SO THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, INCLUDING
VAL VERDE COUNTY. SHOULD ANY STORMS MANAGE TO MOVE INTO THE
MENTIONED AREA, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING SHUTS DOWN, A DECREASE
IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AND WITH
THE ONSET OF AFTERNOON HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOP, WITH MODELS HINTING AT SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEARBY I-35 CORRIDOR. SIMILAR TO
TODAY, WE COULD SEE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY
WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATEST DAY2 OUTLOOK. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS BENEATH A WEAK CAP ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EAST. BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEEPER CONVECTION ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY, WHERE A 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW CHANCE (10-20%)
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND IN
THE TRANS PECOS TO MAKE IT EASTWARD INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
COULD CONTINUE LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY, WITH MOST OTHER AREAS REMAINING DRY. DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAWIDE SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN OPPORTUNITY FOR UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO TO BE MAKE
IT INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY MONDAY EVENING, WHERE A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR
UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVES EAST. UNDERSTANDABLY THIS
FAR OUT, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS AND TIMING ACROSS TEXAS. 20-50%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE CHANCES COULD TREND HIGHS AS WE GET CLOSER
AND REFINED TEMPORALLY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
EARLIER BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED DAYTIME HEATING TO
HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ARE IN STORE FOR SAT AND SSF, WITH
MVFR PERSISTING LONGER AT DRT. CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE I-35 SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL KEEP A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA ALONG I-35
BETWEEN 20-24Z FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION. OUT WEST AT DRT, WE WILL ALSO
HOLD ON TO A PROB30 FOR TSRA BETWEEN 01-06Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
BY LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED ALONG I-35, WITH SOME MVFR AND IFR AT DRT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 86 70 89 / 30 40 10 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 86 69 88 / 30 30 10 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 88 70 89 / 10 30 0 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 83 68 86 / 30 40 10 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 87 71 92 / 30 20 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 86 68 87 / 30 40 10 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 86 68 87 / 10 20 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 87 68 88 / 20 30 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 86 70 87 / 20 30 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 86 71 88 / 10 20 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 88 72 89 / 10 20 0 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...76
AVIATION...PLATT
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