220
FXUS64 KEWX 241142
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE
COUNTY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TODAY. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP. HI-
RES MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON LOCATIONS WITHOUT ANY STRONG
LIFTING FOCUS. THE BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST POPS (50%-60%) ARE OVER THE NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY WHERE THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN
THE LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. TONIGHT A BIT OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING FIRDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG STORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
THEN INCREASING CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DRIFTS OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
A CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO A
MINIMUM. THE ONLY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MAINLY ACROSS
VAL VERDE COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP WITH HEATING
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS AND OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF
NORTHERN MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW TAKES THEM OVER
VAL VERDE COUNTY WHERE THEY DISSIPATE EACH EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM OR
TWO MAKING IT TO THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO APPROACH ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
CEILINGS HAVE SETTLED AT MVFR LEVEL. WE HAD PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THEM
TO DROP TO IFR, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WON'T MAKE IT THAT LOW.
HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE STILL HAS THEM LOWERING THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY AROUND NOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 87 69 87 69 / 40 20 40 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 68 87 67 / 30 10 40 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 88 68 / 30 10 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 84 68 85 67 / 50 30 40 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 87 72 90 72 / 30 10 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 68 87 67 / 50 30 40 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 68 87 68 / 30 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 68 88 67 / 30 10 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 69 86 68 / 30 10 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 87 71 87 70 / 30 10 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 89 70 / 30 0 30 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...05
LONG-TERM...04
AVIATION...05
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