487
FXUS64 KEWX 241758
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1258 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
HAS PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF A BRADY TO
STEPHENVILLE TO WACO LINE WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD JUST TO THE NORTH AND
FORCING FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MAKES IT INTO THE AREA SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS LLANO, BURNET,
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS INDICATED BY
SEVERAL CAMS. THIS COULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO LEE, BASTROP, AND
TRAVIS COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METRO AREA, AS WELL AS WEST
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE
HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THESE AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, AND SPC
HAS PLACED PORTIONS LLANO, BURNET, WILLIAMSON, LEE, AND TRAVIS
COUNTIES IN A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE
COUNTY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TODAY. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP. HI-
RES MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON LOCATIONS WITHOUT ANY STRONG
LIFTING FOCUS. THE BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST POPS (50%-60%) ARE OVER THE NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY WHERE THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN
THE LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. TONIGHT A BIT OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING FIRDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG STORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
THEN INCREASING CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DRIFTS OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
A CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO A
MINIMUM. THE ONLY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MAINLY ACROSS
VAL VERDE COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP WITH HEATING
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS AND OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF
NORTHERN MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW TAKES THEM OVER
VAL VERDE COUNTY WHERE THEY DISSIPATE EACH EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM OR
TWO MAKING IT TO THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO APPROACH ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE ARE WATCHING TO THE NORTH A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY,
WHICH HAS PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING SOUTH. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM AQA-AUS-GYB. WE HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO TSRA AT AUS FROM 21-00Z. ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KT. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 87 68 88 / 40 30 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 87 67 88 / 40 30 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 88 68 89 / 20 30 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 86 66 85 / 30 30 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 90 71 91 / 20 0 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 87 67 87 / 40 30 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 86 68 88 / 20 20 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 87 67 87 / 30 30 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 87 67 87 / 30 30 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 87 69 87 / 20 30 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 71 90 / 20 20 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...05
LONG-TERM...04
AVIATION...76
UPDATE...76
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