515
FXUS64 KEWX 250533
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1233 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HILL COUNTRY INTO THE
AUSTIN METRO AREA
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS LLANO, BURNET, WILLIAMSON, LEE, TRAVIS,
AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES.
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
HAS PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR A BRADY TO LAMPASAS TO WACO
LINE WHICH IS MOVING SOUTH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE
EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD JUST TO THE NORTH AND FORCING FROM THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MAKES IT INTO THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS LLANO, BURNET, AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS INDICATED BY
SEVERAL CAMS. THIS COULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO LEE, BASTROP, AND
TRAVIS COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METRO AREA, AS WELL AS WEST
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WE HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THESE AREAS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION, WE WILL BE WATCHING
CLOSELY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS AS THEY MOVE EAST. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (20%) THAT THESE STORMS COULD IMPACT THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, AND SPC HAS PLACED
PORTIONS LLANO, BURNET, WILLIAMSON, LEE, TRAVIS, AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES IN A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED DEEPER CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10, WHERE A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. THERE IS
ALSO A VERY LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND IN THE TRANS PECOS TO MAKE IT EASTWARD
INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- VERY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
THEN INCREASING CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US BREAKING DOWN THIS FEATURE
LATE MONDAY. WARM, HUMID AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S OR 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND WILL MAINLY STAY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. THAT SAID, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH OUR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THIS
TIME AS STORMS FIRE OFF THE DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS AND MOVE TOWARDS
VAL VERDE COUNTY OR THE HILL COUNTRY. A PATTERN CHANGE COMES TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH TEXAS.
WHILE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TIMING,
CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AT THIS TIME. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AND CEILINGS
SHOULD REACH ALL OF THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE AT IFR HEIGHT IN SAN ANTONIO AND
AUSTIN AND MVFR AT DRT. CEILINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO VFR BY AROUND
NOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING IN THE AUSTIN AREA AND A BETTER CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 87 68 88 69 / 30 10 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 67 88 68 / 30 10 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 89 68 / 30 0 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 66 85 67 / 30 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 71 91 71 / 0 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 87 68 / 30 10 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 68 88 67 / 20 0 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 87 67 / 30 0 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 67 87 69 / 30 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 87 69 87 69 / 30 0 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 71 90 70 / 20 0 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...76
LONG-TERM...27
AVIATION...05
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