044
FXUS64 KEWX 251717
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1217 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10.
WE'LL START TO SEE SOME CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY AS A
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER TEXAS. THERE WILL BE ONE LAST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE RIDGE BRINGS A MORE STABLE
PATTERN. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOIST WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. HI-
RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY STRONG CONVECTION, BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME SMALL HAIL AND MODERATE RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION
SHOULD END QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGING WILL END CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE AIRMASS WARM AND MOIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOWS AND HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS VAL VERDE COUNTY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, THEN HIGHER CHANCES ALL AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP WITH HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
WEST TEXAS AND OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF NORTHERN MEXICO ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STEERING FLOW THEN
TAKES THEM OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY (20 PERCENT CHANCE) WHERE THEY
DISSIPATE EACH EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS STATES MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE REMAIN SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES (20
TO 60 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, ARE CURRENTLY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY. LATER FORECASTS
WILL EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, AS WELL AS,
HEAVY RAINS. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXISTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIFTING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AT I-35 TERMINALS
MAINLY FROM 20-24Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 88 69 89 / 10 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 87 68 90 / 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 88 68 91 / 10 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 85 67 88 / 10 10 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 90 71 94 / 10 10 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 86 68 89 / 10 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 88 67 91 / 10 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 87 67 89 / 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 87 69 90 / 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 89 70 91 / 10 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...05
LONG-TERM...04
AVIATION...27
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