249
FXUS64 KEWX 260050
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
750 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH SUNSET
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
MOIST, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE STREAMING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH, LESS SHEAR THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR STORMS TO TO REMAIN NON-SEVERE. STILL, SOME CELLS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WIND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. ANY
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FURTHER BUILDS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER
NIGHT INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 60S. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT'S CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANCES OF STORMS FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- WET, WARM, HUMID AND STORMY PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEEK.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL WEEK LONG THE DRYLINE RESPONSIBLE FOR
TRIGGERING STORMS OFF INTO WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TX WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRECIP COMING INTO OUR AREA MAINLY VAL VERDE
COUNTY ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE WESTWARD EACH DAY WITH THE QUESTION BEING HOW FAR WESTWARD
WILL IT GET? THE FURTHER WEST IT GETS THE MORE LIKELY VAL VERDE SEES
STORMS AND A DRIER SOLUTION IF THE DRYLINE FAILS TO SHIFT TOO FAR
WEST. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND DON'T SEEM TO BE HANDLING
THESE EVENTS VERY WELL IN TERMS OF CONVECTION FORMING. SO JUST LIKE
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE LINE
OF STORMS ADVANCING WESTWARD FROM WEST TX AND IMPACTING VAL VERDE
COUNTY.
EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN AND STORM FREE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING WITH POPCORN LIKE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EVERYONE ELSE
RETURNING COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AGAIN, MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE JUST WHERE FOLKS
COULD SEE THE MOST AND LEAST AMOUNT OF STORMS SO RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST IS PEPPERED WITH POPS AND HOPEFULLY THIS BECOMES CLEARER AS
MORE HI-RES MODELS COME INTO FOCUS AND INTO AGREEMENT IN LATER
FORECASTS. IT SHOULDN'T BE A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS BUT JUST KEEP
THAT UMBRELLA AND RAIN COAT HANDY JUST IN CASE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS FOR MOST IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS THE DRYLINE STAYS
OFF TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA, ALLOWING US TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY
FLOW THUS PUMPING IN THAT RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. SO TO
SUMMARIZE NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING VERY WET, QUITE WARM AND POSSIBLY
STORMY, HOWEVER DUE TO OUR RECENT LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS WE
WILL TAKE ANY RAIN THAT WE CAN GET.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
MOST CONVECTION HAS MOVED WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES, BUT MVFR
CIGS WILL RETURN AROUND 06-08Z, WITH SOME IFR EXPECTED CLOSER TO 11Z.
WITH SOME WET GROUND NEAR AUS, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG AS WELL.
CIGS SLOWLY LIFT TOMORROW MORNING, WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 19Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 86 69 89 / 10 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 86 68 90 / 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 87 68 90 / 10 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 83 67 87 / 10 0 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 92 70 94 / 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 86 67 89 / 10 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 86 67 91 / 10 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 86 67 89 / 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 86 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 85 69 90 / 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 87 70 91 / 10 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...99
AVIATION...PLATT
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