247
FXUS64 KEWX 261727
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- SEASONABLY WARM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND. WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES PROVIDE A CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA. A WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY
DRYLINE AND SERRANIAS DEL BURRO STORMS WEST OF OUR AREA UNTIL JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST ON SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS DUE TO HEATING OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS OVER OUR
AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD GENERATE SOME SUNDAY
EVENING CONVECTION OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY AS IT LOSES STEAM WHILE
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER TX. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH ANOTHER FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY'S H5 PATTERN OVER TX SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED RIDGE OVER
EAST TX, WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING DEEPER MOISUTRE WHILE THE MID LEVEL
DRY AIR LOOKS LESS CAPABLE OF KEEPING THE CAP STRONG. THUS SOME
GARDEN VARIETY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CARRYING
OVER INTO WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY, A GOOD AMOUNT OF VORTICITY
SWOOPS INTO WEST CENTRAL TX WHICH COULD UPSCALE THE STORMS INTO A
STRONG TO SEVERE LINE WHICH WILL PULL THE CONVECTIVE FOCUS EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY, BUT IT IS RELATIVELY
WEAK UNDER A ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT, AND IT WILL POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR
SOME OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP AROUND 05-06Z
FOR I- 35 SITES AND AROUND 08Z FOR DRT. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR
CEILINGS ARE SEEN AT AUS AND SAT AROUND SUNRISE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
PREVAIL WITH BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS MAINLY DAYTIME THROUGH EVENING
HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 89 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 89 70 88 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 87 69 87 / 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 95 73 94 / 0 0 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 89 70 88 / 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 88 70 87 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 89 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 91 72 90 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...18
AVIATION...27
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