170
FXUS64 KEWX 270527
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
1/3 OF VAL VERDE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LONE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND IS
DEVELOPING, THIS STORM COULD SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA IN TANDEM WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, I-35 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN HILL COUNTRY. DON'T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGING
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER
SUPPRESS SHOWERS. THAT SAID, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE
DRYLINE OR MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND IMPACT VAL VERDE
COUNTY LATE SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
EACH NIGHT KEEPING MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN PLACE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WET, WARM, HUMID AND STORMY PATTERN RESUMING MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE FOR MOST WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. TUESDAY IS WHERE WE RESUME OUR WET AND
STORMY PATTERN AS A LOW PRESSURE AND STATIONARY FRONT LOOK TO KICK
OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG IT. THOSE STORMS SHOULD ADVANCE WESTWARD
INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE THEN GET
INTO A LULL UNTIL EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS
A WEAK RIDGE OVER TX MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD GIVE US ENOUGH
FORCING AND LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ERUPT OVER CENTRAL TX AND
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST REACHING THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY FIRST AND REACHING THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
EVENING. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE EURO SHOWING
A PRETTY GOOD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPROACHING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FOR
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE
ADDED VORTICITY FROM THE TROUGH MOVING JUST TO OUR NORTH.
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS
BEFORE WE GET A BIT OF A BREAK FOR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE
PRIOR NIGHTS CONVECTION PROGRESSES. THURSDAY COULD END UP EVEN DRIER
THEN FORECAST IF WE GET OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE OVERTURNED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS NOW STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP
COULD DETERMINE IF WE GET YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THAT RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT AND ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 70S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE FORECASTS AS WE GET MORE CLARITY ON
THESE UPCOMING SYSTEMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
MVFR CIGS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING WITH TEMPOS IFR EARLY IN
THE MORNING 09Z-15Z. CIGS RISE TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY, THEN FALL TO
MVFR SUNDAY LATE EVENING INTO NIGHT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY APPROACH
KDRT SUNDAY EVENING, THOUGH NOT HIGH ENOUGH PROBS TO MENTION. S TO SE
WINDS BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY MAINLY DAYTIME THROUGH EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 89 70 88 / 0 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 89 70 88 / 0 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 86 69 86 / 0 0 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 94 72 92 / 10 10 30 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 69 90 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 89 69 88 / 0 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 89 71 88 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 71 91 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...ZEITLER
AVIATION...04
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