233
FXUS64 KEWX 271119
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE EVENING STORMS FOR VAL VERDE
COUNTY.
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A CAPPING INVERSION TO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY TODAY AND MONDAY. HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS
AND OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO BREAK THE INVERSION AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE
EACH AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW THEN TAKES THEM OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY
WHERE THEY DISSIPATE EACH EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET.
WILL SHOW A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THERE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(9C/KM), MODERATE CAPE (AROUND 2,000 J/KG), AND STRONG SFC-6KM SHEAR
(ABOUT 40 KTS) SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER, IT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE CAP (CIN AROUND 100)
BREAKING KEEPING THE THREAT MARGINAL. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW
MAINTAINS SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- A WARM, HUMID, AND STORMY PATTERN NEXT WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND PRODUCE ROUNDS OF STORMS
ABOUT EVERY 18-24 HOURS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU,
PRIMARILY IN THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE, BUT THEY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND ONLY MINIMAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING THE
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND REMOVAL OF THE CAP TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS,
AND THE STRONGEST STORMS, WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, BUT SEVERITY WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE TROUGH AXIS RELATIVE TO PEAK DIURNAL HEATING, SO LOOK FOR FURTHER
UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH SOUTH AND WEST OF I-10, AND
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH NORTH AND EAST OF I-10, WITH A FEW SPOTS RECEIVING UP
TO ONE INCH ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO AND IN
THE HILL COUNTRY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY 1/10 INCH OR LESS. AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE, THE BEST PLAN IS TO ASSUME MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WILL BE FINE, BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL, MORE LIKE MID-JUNE VERSUS EARLY MAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF IFR CIGS AND BR WILL LIFT TO VFR
AROUND MIDDAY, THEN RETURN LATE EVENING AND TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
MAY APPROACH KDRT THIS EVENING, THOUGH NOT HIGH ENOUGH PROBS TO
INCLUDE MENTION. LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS BECOME GUSTY MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME TO EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 70 89 70 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 70 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 69 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 87 69 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 95 74 95 72 / 0 10 10 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 87 69 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 69 91 69 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 69 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 70 87 70 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 71 90 71 / 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...ZEITLER
AVIATION...04
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