822
FXUS64 KEWX 280529
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE EVENING STORMS VAL VERDE MONDAY
WITH MUGGY, UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT A VERY MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS NOT
DROPPING BELOW 70 DEGREES AND NO RAIN OR STORMS EXPECTED.EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING VAL VERDE COUNTY WHERE SPC
CURRENTLY HAS A 1 OF 5 RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TIMING OF THIS LOOKS TO BE MONDAY EVENING.
SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU HOWEVER ACCUMULATION'S LOOK MINIMAL AS THESE LOOK TO BE
PRETTY SHORT LIVED. HIGHS MONDAY RANGE FORM THE MID 90S WEST TO LOW
90S EAST WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 70 AREAWIDE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM, HUMID, AND ACTIVE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
STORMS ARRIVING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
ON TUESDAY, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD, ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CWA. ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TRANSLATE EAST, A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN UP OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PERHAPS AS FAR
EAST AS THE HILL COUNTRY. FOR NOW, SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK ONLY HIGHLIGHTS
PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY IN A MARGINAL RISK, BUT WOULD EXPECT
EITHER THAT OR THE DAY 4 TO INCLUDE SOME SORT OF MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF
5) RISK FOR PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN CWA. ANY STORMS THAT FORM OVER
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OR HILL COUNTRY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST. ANY STORM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR
AREA BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, OUR PROGRESSIVE AND STORMY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
SENDING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY-
NEXT WEEKEND. WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND PROPER VENTILATION
OF STORMS, A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COULD DEVELOP LATE WEEK IF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INDICATED BY FORECAST MODELS CAN GET HUNG UP OVER
THE EWX CWA. AT THIS DISTANCE, WE WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC BUT ALSO
REALISTIC IN EVALUATING ANY HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. AFTER THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, WE TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INLAND OVER THE WEST
COAST WHICH COULD BRING EVEN MORE STORMY WEATHER TO OUR REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
RADARS SHOW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH NO IMPACTS TO KDRT. THERE ARE
BETTER CHANCES PROB30S FOR MONDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION
FOR KDRT THEN. MVFR CIGS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
SOMEWHAT MIXED LOWER LEVEL FLOW. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PATCHY IFR
CIGS. CIGS LIFT TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY, THEN LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO NIGHT. MODERATE S TO SE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
28 KTS AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 89 71 87 / 0 10 20 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 88 71 88 / 0 10 10 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 89 71 89 / 0 10 10 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 86 70 85 / 10 10 20 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 92 73 96 / 30 10 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 88 70 87 / 0 10 20 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 70 91 / 10 10 20 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 88 71 88 / 0 10 10 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 88 71 88 / 0 0 10 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 89 72 88 / 10 10 20 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 73 90 / 0 10 10 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...05
AVIATION...04
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