218
FXUS64 KEWX 281735
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1235 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
QUICK FORECAST UPDATE AS THE LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH
EARLIER TIMING ON SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND ATTEMPTING TO ADVANCE A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
LATEST GRID UPDATES REFLECT THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH POPS EXTENDED AS
FAR EAST AS THE HILL COUNTRY AND WESTERN BEXAR COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- MARGINAL CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER, WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES PROVIDE A CAPPING INVERSION TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION BEING, HEATING ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS AND THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF NORTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE INVERSION AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW THEN TAKES THEM
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, RIO GRANDE PLAINS, AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF
THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH CHANCES OF 15
TO 30 PERCENT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THEY FORM A SMALL CLUSTER AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OVER OUR AREA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AS WELL AS, MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, IT IS
CONDITIONAL ON THE MODERATE CIN BREAKING KEEPING THE THREAT
MARGINAL. THE THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. A SIMILAR SETUP IS NOTED FOR TUESDAY
WITH MOST ACTIVITY BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DRYLINE
WILL LIE OVER WEST TEXAS AND AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION IT WILL LIKELY GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH
MAY MOVE INTO OUR CWA. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
WEST TUESDAY EVENING AND SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRIDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
OUR PATTERN OF MVFR IN THE MORNING AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE EVENING, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10-16 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-26 KTS AT TIMES. MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP BETWEEN 04-06Z AT AUS, SAT, AND SSF AND AFTER 12Z AT DRT. A
PROB30 GROUP REMAINS IN PLACE FOR DRT BUT HAS BEEN BUMPED FORWARD 3
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR FASTER TIMING FROM THE LATEST HI RES MODELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 89 71 87 / 10 0 20 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 89 71 87 / 10 0 10 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 90 71 87 / 10 0 10 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 87 70 84 / 10 10 20 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 93 73 98 / 40 10 30 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 89 70 86 / 10 0 20 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 70 90 / 20 0 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 89 71 87 / 10 0 10 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 88 71 87 / 0 0 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 89 72 88 / 10 0 20 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 90 73 89 / 10 0 10 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...MMM
LONG-TERM...05
AVIATION...MMM
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