285
FXUS64 KEWX 281922
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
222 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- MARGINAL CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
THE LATEST GOES-19 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, ALONG WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER TEXAS. LOOKING AT REGIONAL DCP DISTINCTION IMAGERY, TOWERING
CUE AND PERHAPS THE BEGINNINGS OF A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS ARE
NOTED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THIS CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DEVELOPING A
BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, SO COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT
BROADER AND FURTHER EAST IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN ONCE THEY COME OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LIFT TO KEEP
STORMS ALIVE COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THAT DOESN'T LOOK TO
LAST LONG. HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER EAST, BUT HOLD UP
JUST WEST OF I-35/I-37 CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT SHOULD FALL
APART BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER
MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN BEXAR COUNTY.
ON TUESDAY, WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OR INTO THE SJT CWA.
SPC CURRENTLY HAS PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY WITHIN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT THE THREAT LARGELY REMAINS WEST OF OUR
REGION. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR FIRST DECENT
RAIN CHANCE ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING, SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SPRINGTIME WEATHER FEATURING WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS, AND DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS
- HIGHEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES LIKELY TO FOCUS ON WEDNESDAY, FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
LIFT AND THUS RAIN/STORM CHANCES LOOK TO CONCENTRATE TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS THE FORT WORTH AND SAN ANGELO CWAS. HOWEVER, THE ACTIVITY
DOES LOOK TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD, AT LEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHEASTERN/NORTHERN MOST AREAS. THIS IS WHERE MEDIUM (40-60
PERCENT) CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL ALIGN. THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN MORE LIMITED ELSEWHERE WITH LOW (10-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
RAIN AND STORMS. THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO FALL IN-BETWEEN THE MAIN
PARENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS BUT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS
POSSIBLE TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THIS COULD INDUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, FAVORING THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD AND PROVIDES
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
WITH THE CORPUS CHRISTI CWA. THE FRONT COULD THEN LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH OUT OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. WHILE THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE
MOST CONCENTRATED LIFT TO MOVE OUT, THE WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME LOW END (20-30 PERCENT)
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THEN
ADVANCES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS ENTERING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO ENHANCE RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE MORE BEGINNING
NEXT MONDAY. THE 00Z LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT A 50
TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AND A 20 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OR
MORE. ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR WHERE STORMS ALIGN.
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WITH THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR, MAY SUPPORT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AT
TIMES.
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE TO GENERALLY RUN IN THE 80S TO THE LOW TO
MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY WHILE HIGHS TREND A LITTLE LOWER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN FROM THE 60S TO THE LOW
70S IN GENERAL. HOWEVER SIMILAR TO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS, LOWS RUN
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL TREND
MORE COMMON THAN SUN THIS WEEK WITH THE GREATEST CLOUD COVERAGE
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT INTO EACH MORNING WITH THE LOW STRATUS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
OUR PATTERN OF MVFR IN THE MORNING AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE EVENING, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10-16 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-26 KTS AT TIMES. MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP BETWEEN 04-06Z AT AUS, SAT, AND SSF AND AFTER 12Z AT DRT. A
PROB30 GROUP REMAINS IN PLACE FOR DRT BUT HAS BEEN BUMPED FORWARD 3
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR FASTER TIMING FROM THE LATEST HI RES MODELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 89 71 87 / 10 0 20 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 89 70 87 / 10 0 10 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 90 71 87 / 10 0 10 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 88 70 84 / 10 0 20 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 92 73 98 / 40 10 30 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 89 70 86 / 10 0 20 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 91 70 90 / 20 0 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 89 71 87 / 10 0 10 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 88 71 87 / 0 0 0 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 89 72 88 / 10 0 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 73 89 / 10 0 10 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...MMM
LONG-TERM...BRADY
AVIATION...MMM
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