385
FXUS64 KEWX 130534
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- RECORD HEAT EXPECTED TUESDAY.
- HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TUESDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NOW SITS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER
LOW REMAINS TO THE EAST WITH A RIDGE AXIS WEST OF TEXAS. A WARM-UP
CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
RIGHT AROUND 100 DEGREES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO AID IN COOLING
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT APPROACH DAILY RECORDS TODAY,
BUT THAT CHANGES TOMORROW AS WE ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
IS DUE TO A THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER
THE AREA. DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35, THOUGH A FEW
COUNTIES IN THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL ALSO SEE TRIPLE DIGITS. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES
INTO WEDNESDAY (SEE MORE ABOUT WEDNESDAY IN THE EXTENDED
DISCUSSION). THE ONLY COUNTIES NOT INCLUDED IN THE HEAT ADVISORY ON
TUESDAY ARE DEWITT, FAYETTE, LAVACA AND LEE COUNTIES, BUT ARE
INCLUDED FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
WITH EVEN WARMER LOWS UP TO THE MID 70S TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NOW
IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS EARLY SEASON PROLONGED HEAT EVENT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE AT RISK WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- ADDITIONAL HEAT SAFETY INFORMATION AND RESOURCES CAN BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES: WWW.HEAT.GOV AND WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT
-ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR.
THE HEAT PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 103 TO 106
RANGE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY, 101 TO 106 ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
CORRIDOR, AND 103 TO 114 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, VAL
VERDE COUNTY, AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH 9 PM
CDT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO
BE UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IF MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
SHOW A WARMER TREND AS IT IS DOING THIS AFTERNOON DURING FUTURE
WEATHER FORECAST PACKAGES. THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES INTO THE LATTER
PART OF WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES (STILL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) WHILE INCREASED MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HEAT INDEX VALUES
THEN GO ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES WHILE REACHING 103 TO 108 RANGE. WITH
ALL THAT SAID, IT IS GOING TO BE A HOT WORK WEEK ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THAT LIKELY EXTENDS INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
WITH THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SOMEWHAT LIGHT TO BREEZY
WINDS COME ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.
WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY, SUNDAY,
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY,
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND RIO GRANDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THEN MOVES
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT250 CIRRUS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL MONITOR FOR LOWER
VSBYS. S-SW WINDS PREVAIL WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY, EXCEPT NW WINDS MIX OUT
WEST AT KDRT MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE. TODAY MARKS A TRANSITIONAL DAY BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEKEND AND A SUMMER-LIKE FIRE WEATHER
PATTERN DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY BELOW 8 MPH SUSTAINED AT 20 FT ARE
FORECASTED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND RAMPS ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN LOWER
RH VALUES CLOSER TO 10 PERCENT OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100F THROUGHOUT
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WITH 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS. AREAS WEST OF I-35
MAY SEE A MIX OF 5 TO 10 MPH WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS DUE TO
DAILY ADVANCES OF THE DRY LINE. TEMPERATURES TICK DOWN A FEW
DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY, RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE IN DAILY MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT
MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DRY POTENTIALLY RECORD-SETTING WARMTH
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK COULD LEAD TO MORE ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GOING FORWARD AS FUELS DRY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)
TUE WED THU FRI SAT
05/13 05/14 05/15 05/16 05/17
------------------------------------------------------
AUS 94/1967* 96/2003 96/2003 97/2018* 97/2018
ATT 98/1925 97/2022 98/1925 99/2022* 99/2022
SAT 98/2009* 97/2022* 98/2022 97/2022* 100/2022
DRT 104/1995 103/2003 102/2022 107/2013 105/2013
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MAY
-------------------------------
AUS 102 ... SET ON 05/07/1998
ATT 104 ... SET ON 05/24/1925
SAT 104 ... SET ON 05/31/2004
DRT 112 ... SET ON 05/26/2024
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 105 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 106 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 106 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 106 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 110 78 105 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 106 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 110 71 103 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 106 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 101 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 107 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 108 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DIMMIT-
EDWARDS-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-
KINNEY-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-
WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DE WITT-FAYETTE-
LAVACA-LEE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...04
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