818
FXUS64 KEWX 131825 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
125 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- NEW DAILY/MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS EXPECTED
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE WELL ADVERTISED EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE WILL BE UNDERWAY TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING BUILD OVER OUR
AREA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN SPITE OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD,
STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED. THIS ALLOWS FOR AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE ENHANCING THE HEAT. AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 100
DEGREES OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY AND A LITTLE
HOTTER ON WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS
OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA ACROSS THE WINTER GARDEN REGION TO THE RIO GRANDE
AND ALSO THE LLANO PLATEAU. NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TODAY
THE 13TH AND WEDNESDAY THE 14TH WILL BE ESTABLISHED. NEW HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY WILL BE ESTABLISHED TODAY
AND/OR WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE I-35 SITES.
DUE TO UNSEASONABLY HOT NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS, TAKE
PRECAUTIONS. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING, TAKE FREQUENT REST BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR
CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS, AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- POTENTIALLY HISTORIC EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL 9PM
WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COME
DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE
INCREASED MOISTURE COMING IN VIA SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP FEELS LIKE TEMPS AS HIGH AS OUR PREVIOUS
ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. ALL THAT TO SAY, IS IT WILL FEEL HOT AND DRY
INITIALLY BEFORE EVENTUALLY BECOMING MUGGY AND POSSIBLY EVEN
DOWNRIGHT OPPRESSIVE ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-110
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. NO
MATTER HOW YOU SLICE IT, IT IS GOING TO BE A VERY HOT WORK WEEK
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT LIKELY EXTENDS INTO THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU AND
YOUR LOVED ONES HAVE A WAY TO STAY COOL DURING THIS EARLY SEASON
HEATWAVE. ADDITIONAL HEAT SAFETY INFORMATION AND RESOURCES CAN BE
FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES: WWW.HEAT.GOV AND
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT
REGARDING PRECIP, WE DO HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
LATE SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BASED ON PREVIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EACH
EVENINGS PREVIOUS STORMS. MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE PRECIP BEING
POSSIBLE BUT THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT SO BE SURE TO KEEP MONITORING
FUTURE FORECASTS AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MOST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH WINDS BRIEFLY BECOMING WESTERLY AT
DRT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ALONG I-35 EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SUSPECT
WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP COVERAGE LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION EITHER FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
TUESDAY WE COULD SEE RH VALUES LOWER THAN 15% ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
AND RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-20% ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS OVER
100 DEGREES AND ADD IN BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN LOWER RH VALUES
CLOSER TO 10 PERCENT OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100F THROUGHOUT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WITH
10 TO 15 MPH WINDS. AREAS WEST OF I-35 MAY SEE A MIX OF 5 TO 10 MPH
WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS DUE TO DAILY ADVANCES OF THE DRY LINE.
TEMPERATURES TICK DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN DAILY MINIMUM RH
VALUES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON RH
VALUES NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DRY POTENTIALLY
RECORD-SETTING WARMTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK COULD LEAD TO MORE ACTIVE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GOING FORWARD AS FUELS DRY OUT FROM LAST
WEEKS STORMY PATTERN.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)
TUE WED THU FRI SAT
05/13 05/14 05/15 05/16 05/17
------------------------------------------------------
AUS 94/1967* 96/2003 96/2003 97/2018* 97/2018
ATT 98/1925 97/2022 98/1925 99/2022* 99/2022
SAT 98/2009* 97/2022* 98/2022 97/2022* 100/2022
DRT 104/1995 103/2003 102/2022 107/2013 105/2013
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MAY
-------------------------------
AUS 102 ... SET ON 05/07/1998
ATT 104 ... SET ON 05/24/1925
SAT 104 ... SET ON 05/31/2004
DRT 112 ... SET ON 05/26/2024
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 103 74 105 72 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 103 72 105 71 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 103 72 105 71 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 102 74 105 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 108 76 110 80 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 103 74 105 73 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 105 71 107 73 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 103 71 106 70 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 72 100 71 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 104 74 106 74 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 105 73 106 72 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-
BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FRIO-GILLESPIE-
GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LLANO-MAVERICK-
MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ATASCOSA-
BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-
FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-
LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-
WILSON-ZAVALA.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DE WITT-FAYETTE-
LAVACA-LEE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...17
AVIATION...PLATT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page