242
FXUS64 KEWX 140548
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- NEW DAILY/MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS EXPECTED
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON WEDNESDAY. HEAT ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 103
DEGREES. WITH HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST, DRY AIR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RISE TO AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
WHERE UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE, WHERE NEAR 110 IS IN THE FORECAST. THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE FOR
THE HEAT HEADLINES IN EFFECT TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER-
LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETURN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS NORTHWARD
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE
FORECAST JUST YET AS IT APPEARS WINDS MAY BE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET TO WARM EVEN HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE ANTICIPATE TODAY. THE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO
HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AND THE EARLY SEASON OCCURRENCE, WE HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR WHERE THIS AREA REMAINS IN A
HEAT ADVISORY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK NEAR 115 DEGREES ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE, 104-108 FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR AND NEAR
100 ELSEWHERE.
DUE TO UNSEASONABLY HOT NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS, TAKE
PRECAUTIONS. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING, TAKE FREQUENT REST BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR
CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS, AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- ELEVATED DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
THE HEAT CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH SOME AREAS REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY WITH ISOLATED EXTREME HEAT WARNING VALUES. NEW HEAT
ADVISORIES AND/OR EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE LIKELY ISSUED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FUTURE WEATHER PERIODS.
IT MAY SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD IN THE MIDDLE OF MAY, HOWEVER,
THIS HEAT WAVE REMAINS AFFECTING OUR LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND HONESTLY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE LIKELY HELPS
TEMPERATURES NOT TO BE SO ELEVATED, BUT 70S DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAT INDEXES INTO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE NEXT WEDNESDAY TO COOL THINGS DOWN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LOWER LEVEL PROFILES SHOW MOISTURE QUALITY FOR SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER, EXPECT IT WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO GO WITH SCT. WILL MONITOR FOR LATER MENTION OF
CIGS. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING, THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MIDDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 24 KTS
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
THE OTHER THING TO SPEAK ABOUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO MID 20S ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)
TUE WED THU FRI SAT
05/13 05/14 05/15 05/16 05/17
------------------------------------------------------
AUS 94/1967* 96/2003 96/2003 97/2018* 97/2018
ATT 98/1925 97/2022 98/1925 99/2022* 99/2022
SAT 98/2009* 97/2022* 98/2022 97/2022* 100/2022
DRT 104/1995 103/2003 102/2022 107/2013 105/2013
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MAY
-------------------------------
AUS 102 ... SET ON 05/07/1998
ATT 104 ... SET ON 05/24/1925
SAT 104 ... SET ON 05/31/2004
DRT 112 ... SET ON 05/26/2024
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 101 74 99 / 0 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 102 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 73 96 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 106 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 99 74 97 / 0 0 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 103 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 101 74 99 / 0 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 97 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 103 75 100 / 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 105 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ATASCOSA-BANDERA-
BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FRIO-
GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LLANO-
MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
ZAVALA.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-
COMAL-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL
VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
DE WITT-FAYETTE-LAVACA-LEE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...04
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