039
FXUS64 KEWX 142225 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
525 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION (00Z TAFS)
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING/HEAT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM
- NEW HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THURSDAY
THE HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S AND UP TO 104 DEGREES AS OF 2 PM. AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING. TODAY IS LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK ASSOCIATED TO
THIS EARLY HEAT WAVE THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY. NEW DAILY AND MONTH
RECORD HIGHS ARE IN STORE FOR TODAY. SEE THE CLI PRODUCTS WHEN THEY
COME OUT AROUND 440 PM AND 540 PM. THE HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RECORDED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE
THAT EXTENDS FROM AROUND LLANO TO BARKSDALE TO COMSTOCK AS OF 2 PM.
OTHERWISE, HOT AND MOSTLY DRY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE BURNET AND
LLANO AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATE AND VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THESE CHANCES AS HIRES MODELS
SUGGEST DIFFERENT OUTCOMES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH EVEN SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TURN TO
PARTLY CLOUDY MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAT
TAKING OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO HIT
UPPER 90S TO 104 ACROSS MOST AREAS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW PLACES
REACHING 105 OR SO. DUE TO ELEVATED TEMPERATURES REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, A NEW HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM THURSDAY.
HIGHEST AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 104 MARK WHILE
HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 108 TO 109 RANGE.
CLOUD BEGINS TO INCREASE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH LOWS IN THE
70S UNDER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
- EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK REMAINS RATHER UNCHANGED CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD, SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS OVER MEXICO INTO THE GULF WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL AREAS AND WILL SHOW A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU SATURDAY AS THE DRYLINE TEMPORARILY SURGES EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE
REGION. WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR, BUT PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO
30% AS TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT THIS
MAY BRING SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
WINDS HAVE REMAINED MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN ON THE SLIGHTLY BREEZIER SIDE THROUGH LATE
EVENING BEFORE RELAXING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST OF 15+, HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD NOW AT SAT, SSF, AND DRT. AUS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AFTER 09Z, AND HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY
AFTER LATE MORNING AND TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 10-15 KTS ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SOME ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20%.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)
WED THU FRI SAT
05/14 05/15 05/16 05/17
------------------------------------------------------
AUS 96/2003 96/2003 97/2018* 97/2018
ATT 97/2022 98/1925 99/2022* 99/2022
SAT 97/2022* 98/2022 97/2022* 100/2022
DRT 103/2003 102/2022 107/2013 105/2013
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MAY
-------------------------------
AUS 102 ... SET ON 05/07/1998
ATT 104 ... SET ON 05/24/1925
SAT 104 ... SET ON 05/31/2004
DRT 112 ... SET ON 05/26/2024
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 100 75 99 / 0 0 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 98 73 98 / 0 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 106 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 98 74 99 / 0 0 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 102 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 101 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 104 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ATASCOSA-
BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-
FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-
LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-
WILSON-ZAVALA.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DE WITT-FAYETTE-
LAVACA-LEE.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ATASCOSA-BEXAR-
FRIO-MEDINA-UVALDE-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...17
LONG-TERM...PLATT
AVIATION...MMM
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