938
FXUS64 KEWX 152318
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
618 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
- NEW HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
- ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES MID TO LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY SINCE MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WAS NOT EXPECTED TODAY, HOWEVER, ENOUGH
FORCING IN PLACE IN THE MID LEVEL FOR THESE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND
THEN GO THROUGH A DRY LAYER TO MAKE TO THE GROUND. OTHERWISE, THE
HEAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR AND FROM THE 100
TO 104 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. EVEN THOUGH TODAY'S HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO
BREAK DAILY HIGH RECORDS, THESE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN
THOSE TEMPERATURES FORECASTED DURING EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND EVEN PATCHY FOG
OVER PARTS OF THE THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO MID 70S ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO 108 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 111. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE RIO GRANDE.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, WE COULD SEE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE GULF FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO AND INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
THE WEAKENED HEIGHTS FARTHER SOUTH, COMBINED WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FARTHER EAST PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE, WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CHANCES
(10-30%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AS
WELL AS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO WHICH COULD CROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DRYLINE
AHEAD OF IT MAY BECOME ACTIVE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, PRODUCING LOW
CHANCES (10-30%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST COULD BE TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SKIES FEATURING
A MIX OF WITH MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAN MID-LEVEL CUMULUS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ESTABLISH
OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS (KAUS, KSAT, AND KSSF). A TEMPORARY PERIOD WITH IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE AT KSAT AND KSSF. KDRT WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL SITES RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD FEATURING SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CUMULUS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WINDS REMAIN OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SPEEDS WITH STRONGEST BREEZES DURING THE EARLY TO MID-
MORNING HOURS. SPEEDS DROP OFF SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT
THE I-35 SITES. KDRT REMAINS BELOW 10 KTS WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS
AS THE DRYLINE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)
THU FRI SAT SUN
05/15 05/16 05/17 05/18
--------------------------------------------
AUS 96/2003 97/2018* 97/2018 97/2022
ATT 98/1925 99/2022* 99/2022 98/2022
SAT 98/2022 97/2022* 100/2022 101/2022
DRT 102/2022 107/2013 105/2013 107/2024
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 99 75 99 / 10 20 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 98 74 98 / 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 75 99 / 10 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 96 74 96 / 0 20 10 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 105 78 102 / 0 0 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 75 96 / 10 20 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 100 73 99 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 74 99 / 10 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 95 76 96 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 98 76 99 / 0 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ATASCOSA-BASTROP-
BEXAR-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-DIMMIT-FAYETTE-FRIO-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-
HAYS-KARNES-LAVACA-MEDINA-TRAVIS-UVALDE-WILSON-ZAVALA.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ATASCOSA-BEXAR-FRIO-
MEDINA-UVALDE-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...17
LONG-TERM...76
AVIATION...BRADY
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