938
FXUS64 KEWX 161050
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
550 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
LOW CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WHICH WILL AID IN WARM MORNING LOWS IN THE 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP LATER THIS
MORNING, THOUGH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES, HOTTEST NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST DOESN'T ADVANCE TOO FAR EAST TODAY,
POSSIBLY ONLY AS FAR AS VAL VERDE COUNTY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S AHEAD OF IT, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGH AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HOTTEST VALUES IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS UP
TO 111 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR,
COASTAL PLAINS AND EXTENDS WEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WHILE
MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR AREA, A FEW MODELS DO
GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME OF OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT LEADING INTO ANOTHER HOT DAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF
A SURGING DRYLINE. ANY ACTIVITY IS MAINLY EXPECTED OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, THOUGH SOME STORMS DEVELOP IN
MEXICO AND MOVE OVER THE RIO GRANDE. RIGHT NOW, SPC HAS A LEVEL 1 OF
5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- RECORD BREAKING HEATWAVE CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE
RECORDS LIKELY BEING BROKEN THROUGH MONDAY.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
THOUGH CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND STRENGTH IS LOW.
THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH DECREASING STORM CHANCES AS
THESE STORMS THAT FORMED EARLY DURING THE DAY SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY, WITH
HOW WARM AND UNSTABLE WE GET SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. CURRENTLY THE SPC HAS OUR AREA IN A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK
ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR DOWN INTO THE CARRIZO
SPRINGS AREA. AREAS EAST OF THIS LINE COULD SEE STORMS BUT CHANCES
ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE HEAT CONTINUES
THOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES START SLOWLY DECREASING HOWEVER THE FEELS
LIKE REMAINS IN THE 100-110 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE DUE TO AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WHICH STARTS
TO DEEPEN PROVIDING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIMIT JUST HOW HIGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS CAN GO
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
IN RESPONSE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO
MOST OF TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DRYLINE AHEAD OF IT COULD BECOME ACTIVE DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY, THUS PRODUCING LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS. MODELS ARE STILL OUT OF SYNC SO
LOOK FORWARD TO MORE DETAILS TO COME INTO FOCUS AS WE GET CLOSER.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED PRIOR COULD BRING
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION IS LOW AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. TOWARDS
THE END OF THE LONG TERM, TEMPERATURES COOL SOMEWHAT INTO THE LOW 90S
VS THE UPPER 90S/100S THAT WE PREVIOUSLY HAVE BEEN SEEING. PLEASE
MAKE SURE YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES HAVE A WAY TO STAY COOL DURING THIS
EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE. ADDITIONAL HEAT SAFETY INFORMATION AND
RESOURCES CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WWW.HEAT.GOV AND WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED OVER I-35 TERMINALS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ALSO SEEING MVFR VISIBILITY. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 14Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO SITES LATE MORNING, THOUGH THOUGH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIND IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS
MORNING, DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT I-35 SITES. KDRT
REMAINS BELOW 10 KTS WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS AS THE DRYLINE NEARS
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)
FRI SAT SUN
05/16 05/17 05/18
--------------------------------------------
AUS 97/2018* 97/2018 97/2022
ATT 99/2022* 99/2022 98/2022
SAT 97/2022* 100/2022 101/2022
DRT 107/2013 105/2013 107/2024
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 76 98 75 / 10 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 75 98 74 / 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 96 73 / 20 10 30 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 104 79 101 79 / 0 10 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 98 73 / 10 20 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 100 73 / 0 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 97 74 98 74 / 10 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 94 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 76 100 76 / 10 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 76 101 76 / 0 10 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ATASCOSA-BASTROP-BEXAR-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-DIMMIT-FAYETTE-FRIO-
GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-LAVACA-MEDINA-TRAVIS-UVALDE-WILSON-
ZAVALA.
SHORT-TERM...27
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...27
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