664
FXUS64 KEWX 170505
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1205 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS BURNET, WILLIAMSON COUNTIES AND
LLANO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE STORMS HAVE NOW WEAKENED WITH
NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THAT REGION. HOWEVER, DID
ADD POPS AROUND EAGLE PASS FOR CONVECTION AROUND THE BORDER. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT SUSTAIN TOO LONG BUT WE WILL MONITOR. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FROM EARLIER WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
- THE HEAT CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOWER TO MID 90S
ELSEWHERE AS OF 2 PM CDT. HEAT INDEXES ARE RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER
90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AT 100-103 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND FROM
100 TO 107 RANGE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
RIO GRANDE. EXPECT THESE VALUES TO INCREASE AS WE HIT THE HEATING
PEAK TIME FRAME SOMETIME BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM CDT. WITH THAT SAID, HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE 106 TO 111 RANGE OVER AREAS
INCLUDED IN THE HEAT ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THE HEAT, WE HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LLANO, BURNET, AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE (WARM AND MOIST SECTOR). IF THEY DO DEVELOP,
THEY COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS
SPREADS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
UPPER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT AND THEN PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
SATURDAY STARTS WARM WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES, HOWEVER, BY
NOON TIME, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD DOMINATE MOST LOCATIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY NOON TIME, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE WITH MAXIMUM
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS AND
FROM 100 TO 105 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE, CAN'T RULE OUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 106 TO 108 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND UP TO 111 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO
GRANDE. WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME. FUTURE WEATHER FORECAST PACKAGES MAY INCLUDE A HEAT
ADVISORY USING LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. JUST CONTINUE TO EXERCISE HEAT
SAFETY MEASURES.
SATURDAY COULD LOOK DIFFERENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE, SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
PULSES OF ENERGY ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
ACTIVITY LIKELY LINGERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE EVENING PERIOD. BETWEEN
THE RAIN AND COOL POOL OF THESE STORMS, OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TO THE UPPER 60S WITH THE REST OF THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
- LOW CHANCES (10-20%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND ON TUESDAY
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE DRY LINE ADVANCES
FARTHER EAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, TAPPING INTO BETTER MOISTURE,
PRODUCING LOW CHANCES (10-20%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. THE DRY LINE
RETREATS BACK WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT, THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SENDS THE DRY LINE BACK EAST INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR TUESDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT OVERTAKING
IT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND CHANCES OF CONVECTION
WITH THESE FEATURES, AND WE ARE CURRENTLY STICKING CLOSE TO THE NBM
20% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/I-37
TUESDAY.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SUNDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
ELEVATED HEAT INDICES EAST OF THE DRY LINE. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT WE HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN THE NBM. THIS PUTS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO, OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE, NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WHERE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY AS WELL THIS MORNING, INCLUDING AT KAUS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THERE
IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN KDRT SEEING -TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED. LESSER CONFIDENCE IS SEEN AT I-35
TERMINALS BUT A FEW MODELS DO SHOW SOME ACTIVITY NEAR KSAT/KSSF SO
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)
FRI SAT SUN MON
05/16 05/17 05/18 05/19
----------------------------------------------
AUS 97/2018* 97/2018 97/2022 97/2006
ATT 99/2022* 99/2022 98/2022 98/2022*
SAT 97/2022* 100/2022 101/2022 101/1989
DRT 107/2013 105/2013 107/2024 108/2020
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 95 74 98 75 / 20 20 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 96 74 97 75 / 20 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 74 98 75 / 10 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 72 95 74 / 30 30 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 79 103 78 / 30 20 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 95 72 96 74 / 30 30 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 99 74 / 10 20 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 97 73 98 75 / 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 75 95 76 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 76 98 76 / 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 99 76 100 77 / 10 20 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...76
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page