954
FXUS64 KEWX 170740
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
240 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING
STORMS. SHOWERS WILL END WELL BEFORE SUNRISE WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE MORNING. OVERCAST SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER MORNING OF WARM LOWS IN THE 70S
TO RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST
OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR AND
COASTAL PLAINS. ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS FROM AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS,
DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED ALLOWING FOR HEAT INDICES FROM AROUND 103-
107 OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS AND UP TO 111 OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. OPTED TO GO WITHOUT A HEAT ADVISORY GIVEN THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LOOK TO STAY BELOW CRITERIA, THOUGH WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF SOME ISOLATED SPOTS HIT THEIR THRESHOLDS. HEAT
SAFETY MEASURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE TAKEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
GIVEN THE FORECAST.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, BUT COVERAGE COULD BE
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED FOR OUR AREA WITH DECENT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL FORM. THAT SAID, ANY STORM
THAT DOES FORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN HAZARDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP
OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE STORMS FORM, BUT WILL GENERALLY BE
ON THE WARM SIDE AGAIN. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY. SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- RECORD BREAKING HEATWAVE AND HEAT RELATED IMPACTS CONTINUES WITH
ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY BEING BROKEN MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND STRENGTH IS LOW.
THE EARLY RECORD BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES
START SLOWLY DECREASING BUT THE FEELS LIKE REMAINS IN THE 100-110
DEGREE RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE
REGION THUS POSSIBLY LIMITING JUST HOW HIGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS CAN GO
DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, THE
INCREASED MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY CAUSE OUR HEAT INDICES TO BE EVEN
WARMER THEN WHAT WE HAVE CURRENTLY FORECAST, DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT OUR AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS
TO SEND THE DRY LINE BACK EAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR INTO TUESDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING IT
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW AS MODELS
GENERALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH SUCH SMALL SCALE FEATURES. THE
BEST CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED PRIOR COULD BRING
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE
TIED OR BROKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM,
TEMPERATURES COOL SOMEWHAT INTO THE LOW 90S VS THE UPPER 90S/100S
THAT WE PREVIOUSLY HAVE BEEN SEEING. PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU AND YOUR
LOVED ONES HAVE A WAY TO STAY COOL DURING THIS EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE.
ADDITIONAL HEAT SAFETY INFORMATION AND RESOURCES CAN BE FOUND AT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WWW.HEAT.GOV AND WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WHERE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY AS WELL THIS MORNING, INCLUDING AT KAUS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THERE
IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN KDRT SEEING -TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED. LESSER CONFIDENCE IS SEEN AT I-35
TERMINALS BUT A FEW MODELS DO SHOW SOME ACTIVITY NEAR KSAT/KSSF SO
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)
SAT SUN MONTUE
05/17 05/18 05/19 05/20
----------------------------------------------
AUS 97/2018 97/2022 97/2006 99/2008
ATT 99/2022 98/2022 98/2022* 101/2008
SAT 100/2022 101/2022 101/1989 100/1996
DRT 105/2013 107/2024 108/2020 105/1973
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 95 74 98 75 / 20 20 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 96 74 97 75 / 20 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 74 98 75 / 10 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 72 95 74 / 30 30 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 79 103 78 / 30 20 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 95 72 96 74 / 30 30 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 99 74 / 10 20 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 97 73 98 75 / 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 75 95 76 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 76 98 76 / 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 99 76 100 77 / 10 20 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...27
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...27
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