110
FXUS64 KEWX 180514
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1214 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LEVEL 1 TO 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE, SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED HEAT
INDEX VALUES
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
DAMPENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ASSIST WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY
LINE. WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN THIS BRIEFLY TAKE PLACE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MEXICO AS WELL AS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. DISCRETE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF ONCE PEAK HEATING IS REACHED 2-4 PM, WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE AND SOME INDICATIONS OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE BY HREF MEMBERS. SOME SMALLER CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE
INDICATED TO DEVELOP INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND WINTER GARDEN, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL THROUGH THESE REGIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS
PLACED THESE REGIONS IN A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW QUICKLY WEAKENING WILL TAKE
PLACE AFTER SUNSET AS THE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPROACH THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS REALIZED IN THE SPREAD OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
SOLUTIONS IN THE HREF MEMBERS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
EVENTUALLY STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATE EVENING, WITH
STRATUS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, LIKE THIS MORNING WE
COULD SEE SOME HAZE AROUND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AGRICULTURAL BURNING GOING ON IN MEXICO THAT IS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TOMORROW'S CONVECTIVE FOCUS ALONG THE DRY LINE
SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH A ISOLATED, TAIL-
END STORM COULD CLIP THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHER EDWARDS
PLATEAU. CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- RAIN POTENTIAL TRENDING DOWN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, A COUPLE MILDER
WEATHER DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR MID-WEEK.
TUESDAY WAS SHOWN AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM DAY IN EARLIER MODEL
CYCLES, BUT HAS SINCE TRENDED WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FARTHER EAST.
THUS HAVE CROPPED BACK TO OUR EASTERN BORDER FOR TUESDAY AS THE
LATEST NBM SUGGESTS. TUESDAY'S WINDS ARE STILL SHOWN AS LIGHT POST-
FRONTAL WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING, SO THE COOL FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
POTENTIAL TO EASE OF THE TEMPERATURES, BUT COLD AT LEAST LOWER THE
EVENING RH FOR SOME LIGHT RELIEF. WEDNESDAY WILL GET A BETTER CRACK
AT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE LOW OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS ALLOWING
THE DAY TO START OFF WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE AS MUCH MODERATION ON THE MAXES WEDNESDAY, BUT THEY SHOULD
AT LEAST GET THE HEAT INDEX BACK "DOWN" TO THE MID 90S TO 102. A
CONTINENTAL NE LOW LEVEL WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LEADING TO ANOTHER PLEASANT MORNING LOW TEMP NEAR THE SEASONAL
NORMAL. UNFORTUNATELY THE DRY AIR INTRUSION, WHILE MAKING THE WEATHER
MORE PLEASANT, COMES AT A BAD TIME, BECAUSE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
VORTICITY COMING OVER TX IN WEAK ZONAL FLOW FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED POPS ARE PEPPERED IN FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, BUT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME
LIGHT ELEVATED OR VIRGA TYPE ACTIVITY. A BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES BACK INTO TX SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY THE TIME THE GULF
MOISTURE FETCH BECOMES ESTABLISHED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING THUNDERSTORM ANVILS MAY
IMPACT KSAT/KSSF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR, EVENTUALLY SPREADING WEST
OVER A MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. PROBABILITIES HAVE GONE
DOWN FOR IFR CEILINGS SO HAVE REMOVED TEMPO GROUPS FOR KSAT/KSSF.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL SITES NEAR 17Z. BREEZY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ESTABLISH AT THE I-35 TERMINALS (KAUS, KSAT, AND
KSSF) WITH GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL TREND
LIGHTER AND MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT KDRT WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE DRYLINE. LATE IN THE PERIOD, MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)
SAT SUN MONTUE
05/17 05/18 05/19 05/20
----------------------------------------------
AUS 97/2018 97/2022 97/2006 99/2008
ATT 99/2022 98/2022 98/2022* 101/2008
SAT 100/2022 101/2022 101/1989 100/1996
DRT 105/2013 107/2024 108/2020 105/1973
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 95 76 96 74 / 10 10 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 96 76 97 73 / 10 10 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 96 76 97 74 / 10 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 93 70 / 30 10 30 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 102 80 104 74 / 10 10 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 95 72 / 20 10 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 76 101 72 / 10 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 76 97 73 / 10 0 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 94 77 93 76 / 0 0 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 97 77 99 75 / 10 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 98 78 100 76 / 10 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...18
AVIATION...27
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