125
FXUS64 KEWX 182015
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, CLIMATE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY WITH ELEVATED
HEAT INDEX VALUES EAST OF THE DRY LINE
- ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY, CENTRAL TEXAS.
- ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED
ISOLATED, ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ARE
SUPPORTING A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT ARE PRODUCING HAIL. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THESE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HILL COUNTRY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
INDICATED TO CLIP THE REGION. A FEW HREF MEMBERS ARE GENERATED
ISOLATED, ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS
EVENING, MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
ON MONDAY THE DRY LINE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
REGION, AND BY LATE AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AT QUESTION IS IF THE CAP WILL ERODE ENOUGH THIS
FAR SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. IN ADDITION, THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. IF THE CAP DOES ERODE ENOUGH, AND WE
GET MORE BACKING OF THE SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH
THE SEA-BREEZE, ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS SOUTH ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN THIS AREA WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
OTHERWISE, CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES EAST OF THE DRY LINE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE HEATWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AS NOTED BY ~40KT 700MB JET ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL AID IN MIXING THE DRYLINE
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT
MIXING IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE HELPING TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE
DRYLINE/FRONT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY.
LITTLE TO NO RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT ON BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY HELP.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PATTERNS USUALLY YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION,
WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NBM.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
REMAINING STRATUS WEST OF SAT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING
HAS GENERATED ISOLATED TSRA MIDDAY JUST NORTH OF A ERV-T82 LINE AS
WELL AS ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS EASTERN AREAS NEAR 3T5. THE MAIN
FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WILL BE LOCATED PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTH OF ERV-BMQ
LINE. STRATUS IS FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND HILL COUNTRY,
PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS INTO MONDAY MORNING. S TO SE WINDS 12-18KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS 22-28KT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)
SUN MON TUE
05/18 05/19 05/20
----------------------------------------------
AUS 97/2022 97/2006 99/2008
ATT 98/2022 98/2022* 101/2008
SAT 101/2022 101/1989 100/1996
DRT 107/2024 108/2020 105/1973
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 97 73 97 / 0 20 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 97 71 97 / 0 20 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 71 99 / 0 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 94 67 94 / 10 20 20 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 105 73 102 / 10 10 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 70 93 / 10 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 68 102 / 10 10 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 97 70 99 / 0 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 94 72 96 / 0 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 98 73 99 / 0 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 100 74 102 / 0 10 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...76
LONG-TERM...PLATT
AVIATION...76
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page