610
FXUS64 KEWX 182327
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY WITH ELEVATED
HEAT INDEX VALUES EAST OF THE DRY LINE
- ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY, CENTRAL TEXAS.
- ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED
ISOLATED, ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ARE
SUPPORTING A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT ARE PRODUCING HAIL. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THESE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HILL COUNTRY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
INDICATED TO CLIP THE REGION. A FEW HREF MEMBERS ARE GENERATED
ISOLATED, ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS
EVENING, MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
ON MONDAY THE DRY LINE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
REGION, AND BY LATE AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AT QUESTION IS IF THE CAP WILL ERODE ENOUGH THIS
FAR SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. IN ADDITION, THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. IF THE CAP DOES ERODE ENOUGH, AND WE
GET MORE BACKING OF THE SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH
THE SEA-BREEZE, ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS SOUTH ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN THIS AREA WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
OTHERWISE, CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES EAST OF THE DRY LINE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE HEATWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AS NOTED BY ~40KT 700MB JET ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL AID IN MIXING THE DRYLINE
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT
MIXING IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE HELPING TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE
DRYLINE/FRONT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY.
LITTLE TO NO RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT ON BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY HELP.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PATTERNS USUALLY YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION,
WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NBM.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
SLIGHTLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
ESTABLISH OVERNIGHT AS WELL ACROSS THE I-35 TERMINALS WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS. KDRT SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE MONDAY MORNING BUT START TO
DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE DRYLINE NEARS KSAT/KSSF. WINDS
DIMINISH AND TURN WESTERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT KDRT BEHIND
THE DRYLINE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWER OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)
SUN MON TUE
05/18 05/19 05/20
----------------------------------------------
AUS 97/2022 97/2006 99/2008
ATT 98/2022 98/2022* 101/2008
SAT 101/2022 101/1989 100/1996
DRT 107/2024 108/2020 105/1973
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 97 73 97 / 10 20 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 97 71 97 / 10 20 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 71 99 / 10 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 94 67 94 / 10 20 20 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 105 73 102 / 10 0 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 70 93 / 10 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 68 102 / 10 10 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 97 70 99 / 10 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 94 72 96 / 0 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 98 73 99 / 10 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 100 74 102 / 10 10 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...76
LONG-TERM...PLATT
AVIATION...BRADY
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