419
FXUS64 KEWX 190733
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
233 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES EAST
OF THE DRY LINE.
- LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR.
SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING IS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY.
THE DRY LINE ADVANCES EAST TODAY BUT LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS
PLACEMENT BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE AROUND THE WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. BY PEAK HEATING, OUR NORTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY OR I-35 CORRIDOR HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCES TO BREAK A CAPPING INVERSION, THOUGH THERE REMAINS A RATHER
LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON STORM INITIATION THIS FAR SOUTH. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN IN OUR AREA, THEY WOULD LIKELY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN HAZARDS.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS FROM 20-30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED HOT WEATHER WILL BE SEEN WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE
WEST AND ELEVATED HEAT INDICES IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE.
LOW CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE MUCH OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WINTER
GARDEN REGION TONIGHT KEEPING WARM LOWS IN THE 70S. THE COLD FRONT
CATCHES UP WITH THE DRYLINE TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY. HIGHS ARE TRICKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
KEEP HOT TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
WARMING RIGHT BACK UP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
WE START OFF THE LONG TERM WITH THE COLD FRONT BASICALLY EXITING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH WESTERLY FLOW QUICKLY SWITCHING TO A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHAT ONCE LOOKED LIKE A PROMISING FRONT
GIVING US A NICE COOL DOWN KEEPS TRENDING WEAKER AND WEAKER. THUS
WHILE TEMPS WILL "COOL" IT WONT BE BY MUCH, WE ARENT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS LIKE THIS PAST WEEK BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY
OF MID TO EVEN UPPER 90S. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS WITH IT
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING 105+
HEAT INDICES BUT RATHER CLOSER TO 95-100 WHICH WILL DEFINITELY FEEL
"COOLER" THEN RECENTLY. ADDITIONALLY, WE COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISNT QUITE HIGH ON THIS UNFOLDING JUST YET.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WE WARM RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN IN THE 100-105
RANGE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO PARK ITSELF JUST TO THE NORTH
OF US. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES SEEM TO WANT TO ENTER OUR AREA OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ONE APPROACHING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD BEYOND THE LONG RANGE A FAIRLY STORMY PATTERN BEYOND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO CONTINUE THOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WILL
EXPAND WEST OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNRISE. ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING KDRT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.
SOUTHERLY WIND MAY BE BREEZY AT TIME OVERNIGHT, BUT THE NOTABLE
INCREASE COMES THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AT I-35 SITES
BEFORE THE DRYLINE APPROACHES. AT KDRT, WIND BECOMES LIGHTER THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE DRYLINE. THERE ARE LOW
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU OR HILL COUNTRY THIS MORNING, THEN AGAIN OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY OR NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAFS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)
MON TUE
05/19 05/20
-----------------------------
AUS 97/2006 99/2008
ATT 98/2022* 101/2008
SAT 101/1989 100/1996
DRT 108/2020 105/1973
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 96 73 96 66 / 20 20 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 96 72 96 64 / 20 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 99 67 / 10 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 93 68 91 63 / 20 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 104 71 101 73 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 94 70 92 62 / 20 20 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 100 70 101 70 / 10 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 97 72 98 65 / 20 10 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 94 76 97 67 / 10 10 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 99 74 101 71 / 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 102 72 / 10 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...27
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page