211
FXUS64 KEWX 102008
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
308 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLOODING
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARDS
THIS MORNING’S STORM COMPLEX HAD WEAKENED AS IT MOVED FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE HEAD OF THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) PIVOTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORT WORTH
CWA WHERE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LOCATED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE REGION OR HAS FADED OVER PAST HOUR OR TWO. REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING LOOKS TO MAINLY TREND FAIR WITH THE LOWEST
RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHE WILL RETURN DURING LATER IN THE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX WILL ESTABLISH
FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MEXICO, AND THIS COMPLEX IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL OF
THE HREF MEMBERS SHOW DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX WITH A
POSSIBLE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
GREATEST CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY FEATURING ROBUST RAINFALL RATES
THAT COULD RESULT IN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WOULD YIELD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT AS WELL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL, WITH THE GREATEST RISK FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THROUGH THE DAYTIME PORTION OF WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD BECOME TEMPORARILY MORE STABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOLLOWING THE OVERNIGHT STORM COMPLEX. HOWEVER, WITH THE AREAL
DAYTIME HEATING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP IN THE REGION FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX THAT ESTABLISHES AS
WELL ACROSS THE SAN ANGELO CWA AND/OR NORTHERN REGIONS THAT SLIDES
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE FOR ROBUST
RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OR MORE OF
RAINFALL. THIS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FLOODING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO RESULT WITH
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARDS.
THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL GENERALLY
RUN FROM THE MID 80S INTO THE 90S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS RUN FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S INTO THE 70S. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES MAY BE THE
RESULT FROM COLD POOLS FOLLOWING WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE STORM
COMPLEXES AND AREA OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND DECLINE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS DIRECTLY
OVER OUR AREA TO START THE DAY. THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO HOW MUCH
PRECEDING ACTIVITY STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED. BECAUSE OF THIS, INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC
MODEL PROJECTIONS HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO VARY ACROSS MODELS AND
WITH EACH RUN IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE. NONETHELESS, CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
REGIONWIDE THURSDAY, WITH RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ENSEMBLE MEAN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL DISTRIBUTION. THERE IS CURRENTLY A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAIN THURSDAY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY, COASTAL
PLAINS, AND I-35 CORRIDOR, WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. THESE AREAS ARE MOST CENTRALLY POSITIONED UNDERNEATH STRONG
850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR HIGHER RAIN TOTALS THURSDAY. THE MAIN CORRIDOR
OF SOUTHERLY MOIST TRANSPORT STARTS TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE EAST OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY, SHIFTING MORE OF THE RAINFALL EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY
BRINGING SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR REARWARD OF THE OUTGOING SHORTWAVE.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECLINE HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, BUT THE
REMAINING MOIST AIRMASS COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINS MAINLY ALONG RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST STARTING SUNDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS. THIS SHOULD
USHER A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. ISOLATED
COASTAL SEA BREEZE SHOWERS COULD OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, BUT
GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR OTHER
AREAS TO START NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT, THE NEARBY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE, AND OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
LOW CONFIDENT FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD TREND MAINLY DRY AND VFT AT THE AREA TAF TERMINALS
AFTER THE DECAY OF THIS MORNING'S RAIN/STORM COMPLEX OVER THE REGION.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR A NEARBY STORM AT KDRT
IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS. LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX OUT WEST THAT WILL
SHIFT EAST. ADDITIONALLY, SOME ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE ADVANCE OF THE COMPLEX.
ADDED A PREVAILING GROUP FEATURING -TSRA FOR THE PERIOD OF GREATEST
CONFIDENCE AND IMPACT. AREAL COVERAGE COULD DECLINE FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH
PROB30 GROUPS AT EACH OF THE SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOOK TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
SHRA/TSRA. THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING'S COMPLEX RETURNS TO MORE OF A PREVAILING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW, HOWEVER, VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30+ KTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 88 73 88 / 50 70 60 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 89 73 87 / 50 70 60 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 89 73 89 / 50 70 60 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 86 70 86 / 50 70 60 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 90 75 96 / 80 40 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 71 85 / 50 70 60 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 90 72 91 / 70 70 60 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 88 73 88 / 50 70 60 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 88 75 88 / 40 70 40 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 89 74 90 / 60 70 60 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 75 91 / 50 60 60 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...BRADY
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