879
FXUS64 KEWX 112327
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
ADJUSTED THE POPS INTO TOMORROW TO MATCH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND THE MOST RECENT SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE. INITIAL ACTIVITY IS
NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. MOST OF ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING WILL CONCENTRATE IN THAT REGION. A STORM COMPLEX THEN
EVOLVES AND PROGRESSES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLY MORNING RAINS HAS MAINLY SHIFTED
EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME EARLIER SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE, SOME CLOUDS ARE NOTED, BUT WITH THE COOLING AND
STABILIZATION FROM EARLIER, DEVELOPMENT IS SLOW.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. WHILE
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE HI-RES MODELS, WE EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS REGION. WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.75-2.25"), LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A
CONCERN FROM THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY. HI-RES MODELS TEND TO SHOW
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE.
THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN SOME RECENT RAINS AND WITH EXPECTED MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BURNET, WILLIAMSON,
TRAVIS, LEE, BASTROP AND FAYETTE COUNTIES. THE WATCH BEGINS AT 7 PM
THIS EVENING AND RUNS UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS. THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY EVENING, BUT
WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN
A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECASTED TO PUSH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OUT
WEST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND NORTHERN MEXICO PROVIDING
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
CLIMATE VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS
AND UP TO 101 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS,
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE TO START TO PICK UP LATER THIS EVENING AT THE I-35 TAF
SITES (KAUS, KSAT, AND KSSF) BEFORE PEAKING FROM THE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS AND
ADVANCES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO NEAR IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
HEAVIEST/STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG
WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS IN/NEAR STORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. ACTIVITY
WANES BEYOND SUNRISE BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM THE
MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KDRT REMAINS VFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY HOLDING EAST OF THE SITE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 88 75 93 / 80 60 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 88 75 92 / 80 60 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 75 93 / 80 60 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 86 72 91 / 70 30 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 96 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 86 74 91 / 80 50 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 91 74 94 / 60 30 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 89 75 93 / 80 60 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 86 75 91 / 80 90 30 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 90 76 93 / 70 40 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 77 95 / 70 50 20 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR BASTROP-BURNET-FAYETTE-LEE-
TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON.
SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...18
AVIATION...BRADY
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