907
FXUS64 KEWX 121741 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TX TONIGHT, AND THERE IS A
STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED OVER CENTRAL TX. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS MOVING ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AND THERE ARE ISOLATED CELLS
AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE NEW FORECAST PERIOD. STORM MOVEMENT IS
SLOW, AND THEY ARE PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO
THREE INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE AIRMASS WARM AND MOIST. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY
RAIN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST TX FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING
THE WEATHER DRY OVER OUR WESTERN AREA. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WARM AND MOIST. WITH DAYTIME HEATING THERE WILL BE LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD BUILD FAR ENOUGH EAST TO DRY OUT THE ENTIRE CWA. THEN
WEDNESDAY IT WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST ALLOWING LOW RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE EAST AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
FEW CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO REMOVE MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY, AROUND 10 KTS OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 93 76 94 / 10 30 0 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 92 76 94 / 10 30 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 93 75 94 / 10 30 0 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 74 92 / 0 20 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 75 92 / 0 30 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 94 75 95 / 0 20 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 93 75 94 / 10 30 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 89 75 92 / 20 40 0 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 94 76 94 / 10 20 0 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 77 96 / 10 20 0 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BASTROP-BEXAR-CALDWELL-
COMAL-DE WITT-FAYETTE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-LAVACA-LEE-
MEDINA-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...05
LONG-TERM...05
AVIATION...MMM
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