941
FXUS64 KEWX 130729
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
229 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE
TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER TX. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
ACROSS OUR CWA. THE AIRMASS IS NEARLY SATURATED THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WARM, MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TODAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION OVER THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE 100-105 RANGE. INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE SOIL WILL ADD TO
THE HUMIDITY FRIDAY, WITH FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 103-111
RANGE. ANY CONVECTION TODAY WILL END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT. WITH THE WARMER DAY TODAY, LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAY AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM TX SATURDAY, AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD A BIT
MORE EASTWARD. THIS WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES MORE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND COASTAL PLAINS AS THE DAY HEATS UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANCES OF RAIN WANE GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN INCREASE
LATE WEEK
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITIES
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEATING AND A WEAK SEABREEZE PROVIDE FORCING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. CHANCES AS FAR WEST AS I-35
CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BECOME CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR LESS
SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING MOISTURE. FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH CHANCES SPREADING TO MOST OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.
A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST SOILS FROM THE RECENT RAINS KEEP MIXING
WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT LESS EFFICIENT RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ELEVATED. THE
WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME SPOTS NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE WINTER GARDEN REGIONS MAY BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE ESCARPMENT AND WILL BUILD
BACK OVER SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR, BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY DROP TO
IFR. LOW CEILINGS WILL REACH DRT BY AROUND SUNRISE. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 75 94 76 / 20 10 20 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 75 94 75 / 30 10 20 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 92 75 / 30 10 20 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 92 73 / 20 0 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 98 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 93 74 / 20 0 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 93 74 / 30 10 20 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 93 74 / 30 10 20 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 75 91 75 / 40 10 30 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 76 92 76 / 30 10 20 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 77 94 77 / 30 10 20 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...05
LONG-TERM...04
AVIATION...05
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