961
FXUS64 KEWX 140241
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
941 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
A SLIGHT MODIFICATION WAS MADE TO EXTEND THE LATE AFTERNOON POPS INTO
THE EVENING FOR SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THESE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD WANE BEFORE MIDNIGHT, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE
SHOWN THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER
AN INCH.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN US LEAVING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
BE IN THE 90S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP
TO AROUND 107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IF WE
DO SEE ANY ACTIVITY, STORMS WOULD MAINLY BRING GUSTY WIND AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP
IN NORTH TEXAS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT, BUT ALMOST ALL
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY GONE BY THE TIME IT WOULD
APPROACH THE HILL COUNTRY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL
HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF THOSE TODAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE EAST AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANCES OF RAIN WANE GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN INCREASE
LATE WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITIES.
MOSTLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS AND MAINTAINS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, GIVING SOME ROOM FOR A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PUSH INLAND. LOW RAIN CHANCES EXTEND
AS FAR WEST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY WHILE THE RIDGE IS STILL
DEVELOPING, BUT CHANCES LESSEN AND BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AND RELATED
SUBSIDENCE EXPANDS FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK, THE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH, DECREASING SUBSIDENCE AND GIVING
MORE ROOM FOR MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE THAT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COULD PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
EVAPORATION FROM MOIST SOILS AND VEGETATION WILL MAKE FOR WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S FOR MOST FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH LOW 100S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE, WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE
ADDED HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAT INDICES UP SUBSTANTIALLY,
INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S AND POTENTIALLY NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER IN THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK MAY BRING AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
DOWN SLIGHTLY, THOUGH MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
A VERY TYPICAL LATE SPRING DIURNAL TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS. AUS WILL HAVE SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION CHANCES, BUT
BELOW 30 PERCENT. BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND A FEW NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS OF IFR CIGS AT SAT/SSF
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL RECENTLY. DRT COULD SEE ABOUT 4 HOURS OF MVFR
SKIES ARRIVING AT DAYBREAK. VFR SKIES WILL RESUME AT ALL LOCATIONS BY
18Z. SOUTH TO SE WINDS SHOULD DO THEIR TYPICAL VEERING AT NIGHT AND
BACKING IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 95 75 94 / 20 20 0 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 94 75 94 / 20 20 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 93 75 93 / 20 30 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 93 73 92 / 10 20 0 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 78 99 / 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 93 74 93 / 10 20 0 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 93 75 94 / 20 20 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 74 93 / 20 30 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 92 75 92 / 30 30 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 93 76 94 / 20 20 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 94 77 95 / 20 20 10 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...18
LONG-TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...18
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