210
FXUS64 KEWX 151829 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
129 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY, A FEW STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE TODAY
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
AND TROUGHING OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVERLAY A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF AMERICA. HEATING AND
THE SEABREEZE WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POSSIBLE FORCING MECHANISM IS AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS OVER OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
OTHER STORMS OVER NORTHERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORE RELIABLE
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING DUE TO A FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
IT WOULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY, HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LOWER LEVEL SHEAR ARE MARGINAL. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
MOISTURE LEVELS AROUND 150% OF SEASONAL AVERAGES. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ON MONDAY WILL KEEP
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM OUR MOIST SOILS AND VEGETATION DUE
TO OUR RECENT RAINS RESULTS IN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MILDLY
ELEVATED AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH DAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL MID-WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FARTHER TO THE EAST AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENT FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS
MOST CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CARRY A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE WEATHER WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO DURING THIS
TIME, BUT WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. HOWEVER, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MAKING HEAT INDICES
100 TO 105 EACH AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
TX FROM THE GULF WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO MOVE IN FROM THE COAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME ANY CONVECTION LOOKS
ORDINARY WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE RAINFALL, BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AN OCCASIONAL STRONG STORM WOULDN'T BE SHOCKING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT
AUS AND PROB30 FOR SAT AND SSF. MOST STORMS ALONG I-35 SHOULD BE
BETWEEN 20-24Z, BUT WILL MONITOR THE FORECAST AT AUS AND MAY NEED TO
BUMP THE START TIME FOR TSRA UP A LITTLE EARLIER. LOW CLOUDS RETURN
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 94 76 96 76 / 50 10 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 94 76 95 76 / 50 10 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 94 74 / 30 10 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 94 73 / 40 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 93 76 95 75 / 50 10 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 94 75 95 74 / 30 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 95 75 / 40 10 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 76 92 75 / 50 20 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 77 94 75 / 30 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 77 95 76 / 30 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...MMM
AVIATION...PLATT
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