059
FXUS64 KEWX 151930
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
230 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
- ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES ON MONDAY.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS, WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SCATTERED WIND GUSTS OF 40-
50 MPH, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH ALSO NOTED. THIS LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION, WE ARE
MONITORING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE COASTAL
PLAINS INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE
SATURATED CAN ALSO EXPECT INCREASED RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DAYTIME HEATING, SO A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
ON MONDAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR.
ELSEWHERE, WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH 100-105 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. WITH
SOUTH WINDS HELPING TO KEEP MOISTURE INTACT, ELEVATED HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. A FEW SPOTS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 108 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- RETURNING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ITS GRASP ON THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH HOT, HUMID, AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S OUTSIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS,
WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 100-106 RANGE. WEDNESDAY
NOW LOOKS SIMILAR WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE AT RAIN AS THE RIDGE
LINGERS A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EAST WITH 100- 106 OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.
ON THURSDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHOULD START TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEST, OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE RETURN OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT
AUS AND PROB30 FOR SAT AND SSF. MOST STORMS ALONG I-35 SHOULD BE
BETWEEN 20-24Z, BUT WILL MONITOR THE FORECAST AT AUS AND MAY NEED TO
BUMP THE START TIME FOR TSRA UP A LITTLE EARLIER. LOW CLOUDS RETURN
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 96 76 97 / 10 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 95 76 96 / 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 74 95 / 10 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 94 73 95 / 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 101 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 95 75 95 / 10 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 95 75 96 / 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 92 75 92 / 20 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 94 75 95 / 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 95 76 96 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...MMM
AVIATION...PLATT
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