456
FXUS64 KEWX 160534
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
- ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES ON MONDAY.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS, WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SCATTERED WIND GUSTS OF 40-
50 MPH, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH ALSO NOTED. THIS LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION, WE ARE
MONITORING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE COASTAL
PLAINS INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE
SATURATED CAN ALSO EXPECT INCREASED RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DAYTIME HEATING, SO A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
ON MONDAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR.
ELSEWHERE, WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH 100-105 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. WITH
SOUTH WINDS HELPING TO KEEP MOISTURE INTACT, ELEVATED HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. A FEW SPOTS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 108 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- RETURNING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ITS GRASP ON THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH HOT, HUMID, AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S OUTSIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS,
WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 100-106 RANGE. WEDNESDAY
NOW LOOKS SIMILAR WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE AT RAIN AS THE RIDGE
LINGERS A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EAST WITH 100- 106 OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.
ON THURSDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHOULD START TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEST, OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE RETURN OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
THE SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HAVE DISRUPTED THE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW WHILE FAIRLY THICK CLOUDS AT FL200 LINGER. AS A RESULT,
THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE DELAYED. CURRENTLY HAVE 08Z FOR THE
I-35 SITES AND 10Z FOR KDRT. IN ADDITION, DUE TO THE RAINFALL, A
PERIOD OF IFR, POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPOS FOR IFR 10Z-14Z. CLOUDS SHOULD MIX TO VFR BY
MIDDAY ON MONDAY. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT POTENTIAL OF MOVING TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT AS PROBS ARE TOO
LOW. VRBL WINDS RESUME FROM THE S TO SE OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 96 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 103 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 92 76 93 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...MMM
AVIATION...04
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