640
FXUS64 KEWX 162328
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY AND TUESDAY.
THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTH TEXAS HAS INTERRUPTED
ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH HI-RES MODELS SHOWING LESS IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY, WE HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
PEAK AROUND 106 DEGREES TODAY FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
FOR TUESDAY, WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCH UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO AND THIS
MAY BOOST A FEW AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO 108 DEGREES
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
ACTIVE WEATHER STAYS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND HILL COUNTRY. CAN'T TOTALLY
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S WITH UP TO 107
DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
INCREASED MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECASTED TO PUSH TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO EAST TEXAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE AN
INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS AND
THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR
AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE ARE KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA
RELATIVELY DRY ON THURSDAY WITH A WETTER SOLUTION COMING OUT OF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. SO TO ACCOUNT TO THESE SOLUTIONS, WENT WITH LOW POPS
(20 TO 40 PERCENT) MAINLY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND UP TO 103
DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
BY FRIDAY, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS WHILE THE INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND MAY BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND GETTING AS CLOSE AS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. IT IS GOING TO BE COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AREAWIDE.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE MOST PART
WITH PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INTERACTION OF
OUTFLOWS AND SEABREEZE. AS FAR AS THE TEMPERATURES GO, NORMAL
CLIMATE VALUES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
FOR MOST PLACES AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT OUR TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING BEFORE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP STARTING AROUND 07-08Z AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AND AROUND 12Z AT DRT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK AFTER 16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT
ALL SITES. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ABOVE 10 KT ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 16Z AND SHOULD MAINTAIN SIMILAR
STRENGTH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 96 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 96 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 103 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 96 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 93 77 92 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 96 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...17
AVIATION...TRAN
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