579
FXUS64 KEWX 011048
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
548 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
- WARMING UP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT POSSIBLE.
- SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
CURRENTLY WHEN LOOKING AT RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING, MOST
AREAS ARE RAIN FREE AT THE MOMENT BESIDES PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY
WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
NOT REACHING THE GROUND BASED OFF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODELS HAVE THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE THEY CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BLOSSOM AS EARLY AS 4AM
MAINLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD WITH
TIME INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. WITH THE RIDGE POSITIONED
JUST OFF TO OUR EAST CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
REMNANTS OF BARRY TO WORK THERE WAY THROUGH MEXICO. THIS WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE TROPICAL DOWNPOURS MUCH
LIKE WE SAW OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE LOW 80S DUE TO RAIN COOLED
AIR AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WHILE AREAS IN THE EAST THAT SEE SUN,
COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METRO. UNLIKE THE
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS, SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING AND PERHAPS OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHILE
MOST ACTIVITY EAST OF THIS AREA SHOULD SEE STORMS WANE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
BY THURSDAY WE COULD SEE ONCE AGAIN MORE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WHILE
AREAS EAST OF I-35 MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ANY RAINFALL AT ALL. THE
CULPRIT LIES IN THE SOMEWHAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE
PARKED JUST TO THE EAST OF US BUT WILL HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO SHUT
OFF ANY POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS. BASICALLY A RINSE AND REPEAT SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WITH
HIGHS LOW TO MID 90S IN THE EAST AND MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE
WEST. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER WEST OVER OUR AREA
THUS SHUTTING OFF ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES AS CLOUDS START TO ERODE
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REALLY RAMP UP WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE RIDGE STARTS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON COASTAL
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PERHAPS AREAS AS FAR EAST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THUS OUR SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES RESUMES WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU PLAN
ON BEING OUTDOORS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND HEAT INDICES RISE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE SEEN THIS MORNING
MAINLY FROM SAT/SSF WESTWARD. LIGHT RAIN MAY IMPACT DRT THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR AFTERNOON ACTIVITY, CONTINUED WITH THE
PROB30 GROUP AT DRT GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATIONS AND TIMING
OF SHOWERS. AUS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MODELS
BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO SAT/SSF TODAY BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP
TONIGHT IN THE WEST WHICH MAY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS SAN ANTONIO
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 97 75 97 75 / 10 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 73 96 75 / 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 94 73 93 73 / 20 10 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 73 93 73 / 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 85 73 87 75 / 70 60 50 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 74 97 75 / 10 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 85 73 / 40 30 40 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 95 72 94 73 / 10 10 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 95 73 95 74 / 10 0 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 75 90 75 / 30 20 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 75 91 75 / 30 20 30 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...CJM
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...27
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