493
FXUS64 KEWX 012337
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
- LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY
- SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT A GOOD
PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND WEST
HIGHWAY 281 (WESTERN HILL COUNTRY, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS). SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS LEADING INTO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND DUE TO THAT, WPC DAY
ONE ERO HIGHLIGHTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS UNDER A MARGINAL (1 OF
4 RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL) CATEGORY. IN ADDITION, WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH AND UP TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY SUCH AS IN THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METRO AND
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE MOST
PART WITH A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO LATE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIRMASS
OVER THESE LOCATIONS COME FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER THAT IT IS IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
BY MID TO LATE EVENING, THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE AND NEARBY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OF TODAY IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY THE
RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU IN THE MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183 SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN.
WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS AREAS.
CONTINUED SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, HOWEVER, THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS WITH DRY
BREAKS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. LOWS REMAIN IN
THE 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
FOR THURSDAY, THE LOCAL AREA STAYS CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S TO LOWER 90S. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS VALUES OVER 2
INCHES IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE GULF
WATERS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO SLIGHT TO CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE. SOME OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES LEADING TO
MINOR AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE LIKELY HELPS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NO EXPECTING TO ISSUE ANY HEAT RELATED
PRODUCTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, HOWEVER, STAY HYDRATED AND TAKING
BREAKS FROM THE HEAT AS ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 107 ARE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 6:25 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
AN AREA OF SHOWERS, WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, IS
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SHOWERS SHOULD REACH DRT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND LAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE IN RAIN, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STAY VFR.
LOW CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY DROP TO
IFR. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING SAN ANTONIO THIS
EVENING, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN THE SAN ANTONIO AREA, BUT
AUSTIN SHOULD REMAIN VFR. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY IN THE SAN ANTONIO AREA.
THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN AUSTIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 96 75 94 / 10 20 10 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 94 74 94 / 0 20 10 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 74 91 / 10 30 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 73 90 / 10 20 10 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 86 75 89 / 60 60 60 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 94 74 93 / 10 10 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 84 73 86 / 40 40 30 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 73 92 / 10 30 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 94 74 94 / 0 10 0 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 89 75 89 / 20 30 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 75 91 / 20 30 20 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...17
LONG-TERM...17
AVIATION...05
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