388
FXUS64 KEWX 021135
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, HILL COUNTRY, AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
- SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE THEY CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
BLOSSOM EARLY IN THE MORNING DUE TO AN INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER
MEXICO WHICH SPREADS INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND NORTHWESTWARD
WITH TIME INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE POSITIONED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THESE
STORMS TO PRODUCE TROPICAL DOWNPOURS MUCH LIKE WE SAW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT
MANY HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING SEVERAL WAVES OF DEEP MOISTURE
ADVANCING INTO THE AREA AND EVEN MAKING IT POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS
THE AUSTIN METRO AND COASTAL PLAINS. THIS IS QUITE THE CHANGE FROM
EVEN RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE
FINALLY CATCHING ON TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OFF TO OUR EAST
BEING WEAKER. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS SURGE TO OVER 2
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS DECIDED TO RAISE POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE LOW 80S DUE TO RAIN COOLED
AIR AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WHILE AREAS IN THE EAST THAT SEE SUN,
COULD APPROACH THE MID 90S. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING AND PERHAPS OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE WHILE MOST ACTIVITY EAST OF THIS AREA SHOULD SEE STORMS WANE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THURSDAY WE EXPECT
MORE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DEEP
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO CAUSES PWATS TO SURGE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ONCE
AGAIN RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO FORM DURING THE DAY. SINCE THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER CHANCES ARE NOW HIGHER THAT MOST AREAS
ON THURSDAY THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY LOOKING DRY WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
BY THURSDAY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE BY SUNSET MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. AREAS WEST, INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
CONTINUING IN COVERAGE WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH OR DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER WEST OVER OUR AREA THUS SHUTTING
OFF ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS CLOUDS START TO ERODE FROM
EAST TO WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THE RIDGE COMING IN WEAKER
THEN EXPECTED SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING YET AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS DISPLACED OFF
TO OUR WESTERN AREAS INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. AREAS TO THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR SATURDAY WITH ALL AREAS SEEING PRECIP CHANCES SHUT
OFF BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REALLY
RAMP UP WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE RIDGE STARTS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING
FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON COASTAL SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL PLAINS. THUS OUR SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES RESUMES WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU PLAN
ON BEING OUTDOORS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND HEAT INDICES RISE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
AUS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON THAT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE NEAR SAT/SSF THROUGH 16Z, THEN VCSH AND POSSIBLY -RA
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AT DRT
CONTINUE WITH MODELS STILL FAVORING IFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID-
MORNING, THEN BACK UP TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TOWARDS DRT WITH THIS PATTERN LIKELY
TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON. LESSER CONFIDENCE ON RAIN CHANCES
IS SEEN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SO ONLY HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30S FOR DRT AFTER 21Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST
TOWARDS I-35 TERMINALS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 96 75 93 76 / 20 10 30 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 96 75 93 75 / 30 10 30 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 91 74 / 40 20 40 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 92 73 89 73 / 30 20 40 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 75 88 75 / 80 60 50 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 91 74 / 10 10 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 84 73 86 73 / 70 40 50 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 93 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 96 75 93 75 / 20 10 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 75 88 75 / 50 30 40 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 90 75 / 50 30 40 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...CJM
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...27
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