711
FXUS64 KEWX 030605
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
105 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WET AND "COOL" TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- TURNING SEASONABLY DRIER AND WARMER ON SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSEASONABLY MOIST WITH PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.4
INCHES. FORCING BY THE TROUGH AND HEATING WILL GENERATE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS OVER MOST AREAS WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED AND MAY
CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE
MOISTENED SOILS RESULTING IN FASTER RUNOFF. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN, BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
MOST MODELS ARE NOW LEAVING A REMNANT MID LEVEL FEATURE OVER OUR
AREA WITH LESS OF AN INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ALONG WITH FORCING BY THE FEATURE AND HEATING. THUS, HAVE INTRODUCED
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY
AND RIO GRANDE INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU ON SUNDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS MORE FULLY OVER OUR AREA NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WANE AS THE AIRMASS DRIES UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.
ABOUT THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WITH THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON. INCREASED SUNSHINE LEADS TO
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
SHOWERS AT AUS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AIRPORT IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT DRT THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING TO I-35 TERMINALS AROUND 08-10Z. IFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY FROM THE HILL COUNTRY WESTWARD INCLUDING DRT
THROUGH MID MORNING WHICH MAY JUST REACH SAT/SSF AROUND 11Z.
CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR FOR I-35 TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS LINGER AT DRT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAIN UNCERTAIN
LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS. FOR THIS ISSUANCE, HAVE CONTINUED PROB30 GROUPS
FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 75 92 75 / 50 20 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 76 91 75 / 50 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 75 91 74 / 50 20 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 74 88 73 / 50 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 87 75 92 76 / 70 50 50 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 75 90 75 / 40 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 75 89 73 / 50 40 30 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 75 91 74 / 50 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 75 91 75 / 40 20 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 76 90 75 / 50 30 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 76 92 75 / 40 20 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...04
AVIATION...27
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