770
FXUS64 KEWX 040553
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND HILL COUNTRY,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL EXTENDING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
- RAIN COVERAGE DECREASES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, BUT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE.
- SEASONABLY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS,
CHARACTERIZED BY UNSEASONABLY MOIST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
HIGH AS ABOUT 2.4 INCHES. THE 12Z DEL RIO UPPER-AIR SOUNDING THIS
MORNING OBSERVED A PW OF 2.31 INCHES, WHICH IS NEAR DAILY RECORD
HIGH VALUES. THE AXIS OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOST
READILY APPARENT ON 700MB ANALYSES IS BEGINNING TO MOVE POLEWARD
TOWARDS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, LEADING TO ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO TOMORROW AS THE ADVANCING TROUGH
PROMPTS THE ASCENT OF MOIST AIR. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER
THE BIG BEND AREA HAS ALSO ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR
REGION.
OBSERVED AND SIMULATED VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT
PRESENTLY CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN, SUPPORTING 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
RAIN RATES. GIVEN THE BROAD REGION OF RISING AIR AND LACK OF
DOMINANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES, SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WIDELY
DISTRIBUTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE HEAVY RAIN RATES DRAG DOWN COOLER
AIR ALOFT. COLD POOLS EXPANDING UNDER WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY
BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONCENTRATING A FEW CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS DEPICTED ON SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE, AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN TOTALS MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SLOW-MOVING CLUSTERS. MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT OVER
THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS OVER THE HIGHWAY
90 CORRIDOR, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
UPWARDS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES COULD MATERIALIZE IF SLOW-MOVING STORMS
BEGIN TO CLUSTER. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, SOME FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY,
WHERE THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHER FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
RAINFALL FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IS MOST EVIDENT. WHILE THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF MODELED PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS, THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS COULD SHIFT DEPENDING ON WHERE
STORMS AGGREGATE, AND EXPANSION TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
GRADUALLY EAST.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE FRIDAY AS
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FAVORING MOSTLY
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY AS THE MOIST TROPICAL
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO
OCCUR ALONG CONVERGENT FLOW THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE I-
35 CORRIDOR. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRIGGERING TODAY'S RAINS SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF AN
OVERLAPPING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US AND A RETROGRADING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF WILL PREVENT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM
REBUILDING OVER OUR AREA. THUS, THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
STICK AROUND OUR AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH NORTHEAST FLOW FROM
THE GULF SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BRING IN DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR ON
SUNDAY. FORCING DOESN'T LOOK VERY STRONG, BUT THE MOIST AIR, DAYTIME
HEATING, AND RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER OVER THE WEEKEND. WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL
AIR, THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES, ABOUT 20 TO 35 PERCENT, WOULD BE OVER THE I-
35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SHIFTING WEST TO
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RESIDUAL
TROPICAL AIR BEGINS TO BE SQUEEZED WESTWARD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY WARMER LEVELS
AS RAIN CHANCES DECREASE UNDER SUNNIER SKIES. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
AND SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ENSEMBLE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE PLACES THE CORE OF
THE RIDGE DECENTLY FAR ENOUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES,
THOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING TO PERMIT
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SEABREEZE RAINS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
CONCERNS FOR SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A VERY TRICKY
FORECAST THIS PERIOD WITH SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS. CONTINUED
MENTION OF -RA UNTIL 07Z FOR KSSF AND KSAT AND 08Z FOR KAUS AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBILITIES. LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT KSAT AND KSSF
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED PROB30 FOR KAUS BASED ON RECENT HI-RES
MODEL DATA COMING IN FOR 17Z TO 20Z FOR TSRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PREVAILING
IFR IS EXPECTED AT KDRT. REGARDING DRT HAVE ADDED IN PROB30 FOR
21Z-00Z BASED OFF INCOMING MODEL DATA AND TRENDS. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FOR KAUS AND KSAT BUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 74 90 74 / 50 20 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 74 89 73 / 40 20 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 74 89 73 / 40 20 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 83 73 87 71 / 60 20 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 75 94 75 / 40 20 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 74 88 73 / 50 30 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 85 73 / 60 20 30 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 74 89 72 / 40 20 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 76 92 73 / 30 10 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 75 87 74 / 50 20 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 76 89 74 / 40 20 30 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BANDERA-BEXAR-BLANCO-
BURNET-EDWARDS-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LLANO-MEDINA-REAL-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...76
AVIATION...CJM
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