029
FXUS64 KEWX 041440
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
940 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
UPDATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING THERE. WE EXPECT THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND A FEW SPOTS IN
THE HILL COUNTRY COULD SEE ANOTHER 5 INCHES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
ONGOING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
DUE TO FORCING FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
INTERACTING WITH AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.4
INCHES. THE 2.34 INCHES SEEN ON THE 04/00Z DEL RIO SOUNDING IS AT
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES
POSSIBLE. INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES UP TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE. THE FAVORED AREAS ARE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY, AS WELL AS BEXAR COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAVE EXTENDED THE
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 18Z FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL FEATURE AND UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS LINGER AND WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL WANE, AT TIMES.
SOME MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED. DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN, BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THE MID LEVEL FEATURE LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH, MOISTURE LEVELS
DECREASE AS SOME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA,
THEY REMAIN ELEVATED TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FAVORED AREAS ARE THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS MORE FULLY OVER
OUR AREA NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL FEATURE MAY LINGER.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WANE AS THE AIRMASS DRIES UNDER
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WITH THE
SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SHOULD A
STRONGER MID LEVEL FEATURE LINGER, THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL EXTEND TO
OTHER PARTS OF OUR AREA. INCREASED SUNSHINE LEADS TO TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF RA WILL LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY. THERE
ARE PROBS OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND HAVE GONE WITH
PROB30S MAINLY AT THE I-35 SITES. A MIX OF CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN SHRA/TSRA. S TO SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 91 74 95 / 20 30 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 90 73 94 / 20 30 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 89 73 93 / 20 30 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 71 91 / 20 30 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 95 75 94 / 10 10 10 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 89 73 92 / 20 30 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 87 73 89 / 20 30 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 88 73 92 / 20 30 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 93 73 94 / 20 20 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 87 75 91 / 20 30 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 89 75 93 / 20 30 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BANDERA-BEXAR-
BLANCO-BURNET-EDWARDS-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LLANO-
MEDINA-REAL-UVALDE.
UPDATE...05
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...04
AVIATION...04
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