573
FXUS64 KEWX 050558
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLASH FLOODING FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU, THE HILL COUNTRY, AND BEXAR COUNTY.
- CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WET AND "COOL" FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- TURNING SEASONABLY DRIER AND WARMER NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT HAS GENERALLY BEEN WEAKENING, BUT STILL HAS
POCKETS OF STRONGER SHOWERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING, BUT 30%-40% POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER OVERALL,
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WE DON'T EXPECT ANY FLOODING.
SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FURTHER. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, BUT
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HILL COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD MORE FULLY OVER
OUR AREA NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WANE
AS THE AIRMASS DRIES UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE ONLY RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WITH THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS EACH
AFTERNOON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A TRICKY AND LOW CONFIDENCE TAF PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED. LOOKING AT
CURRENT RADAR OBS THERE IS A PERSISTENT CELL JUST TO THE WEST OF
KAUS. FROM THIS CELL -RA IS OVERSPREADING THE SITE AND EXPECT THAT
TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z IF NOT LONGER. EXPECT MVFR TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL I-35 SITES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR BY
11Z. INTRODUCED TEMPOS TOMORROW MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH -TSRAS
AND TEMPOS FOR KSAT AND KSSF FOR -RA. -RA COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR BOTH SITES AS WELL THUS HAVE
ADDED PREVAILING -RA UNTIL 19Z. ADDED PROB30S FOR KAUS BASED ON
RECENT MODEL TRENDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
-RA AND EVEN -TSRA FOR KSAT AND KSSF AS WELL. FOR KDRT EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CIGS WITH TEMPO FOR EARLY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS BEFORE
RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR REST OF TAF PERIOD. ALL TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR BY 23Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 85 73 92 73 / 70 20 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 73 91 72 / 60 20 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 91 72 / 70 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 72 88 71 / 70 30 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 97 75 91 75 / 10 20 40 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 72 89 72 / 70 20 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 87 72 / 40 20 30 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 73 91 72 / 70 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 73 93 73 / 50 10 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 74 90 74 / 60 20 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 75 92 74 / 60 20 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...76
LONG-TERM...04
AVIATION...CJM
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