581
FXUS64 KEWX 072327 CCA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT AUGUST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
- SLIGHT CHANCES (15-30%) FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STAY PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH A CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LAVACA AND DEWITT COUNTIES AS THE SEABREEZE MAKES ITS WAY WESTWARD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT WILL STILL BE HOT OVER MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
EVENTUALLY BY THIS WEEKEND THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES OFF
TO THE WEST AND SOMEWHAT FLATTENS/WEAKENS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN INCOMING INVERTED TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY
WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE AFFECT THIS HAS ON OUR AREA
SHOULD BE MINIMAL BESIDES A "COOLING" OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A
DEGREE OR TWO WITH HEAT INDICES STILL ELEVATED AROUND THE 100-105
RANGE AS THIS TROUGH TRIES TO BRING IN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. THIS
BRINGS HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON COASTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
STAYING EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THIS INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE TX COAST AND FORMS
INTO A COASTAL LOW SWINGING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. DO TO SOME
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO DECIDED TO RAISE POPS ALBEIT IT
SLIGHTLY TO 20% ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS LOW CLOSELY DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AS OUR
AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE WEAKENING HIGH TO OUR WEST AND A
DEVELOPING HIGH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF STATES. CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RESUMES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105
RANGE WITH LOWS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
THIN SMOKE REMAINS ABOVE FL010 WITH MINOR REDUCTIONS TO SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY BUT NO IMPACTS AT SURFACE. VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS.
NOT EXPECTING A STRONG SEABREEZE TONIGHT GIVEN EARLIER PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS AT
DRT BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP NEAR SSF AND AREAS
SOUTHEAST AFTER 09Z. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 7 TO 10 KTS RETURN
TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 102 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 100 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 102 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...CJM
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...TRAN
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