470
FXUS64 KEWX 101018 CCA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
518 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
AN INVERTED TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MUTED ALOFT, THE TROUGH
IS NUDGING HIGH-PRESSURE WESTWARD AND GIVING A LITTLE MORE ROOM FOR
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PUSH INLAND. THIS WILL SET UP CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
WEAKENED RIDGING, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REACH THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY BY THE LATE-AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN FIZZLES AFTER SUNSET.
SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING
A LITTLE MORE INLAND, THOUGH AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
US SHOULD KEEP THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THIS BRINGS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD
EXTENT, THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST, DECREASING FARTHER WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVING
RAIN-ENHANCED SEABREEZES, BUT THE MOSTLY ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE 90S WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 OVER
THE DRIER RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY LESS STABLE CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK COULD SIGNAL A
SHIFT TOWARD INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A NEAR FLAT TREND ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
CORRECTION TO THE PREVIOUS AFD. THE INVERTED TROUGH PATTERN IS
MAINTAINED TUESDAY AND IS JOINED BY FALLING HEIGHTS FROM A POLAR
TROUGH TO SET UP A BROADER N-S SHEAR AXIS ACROSS TX WHICH
CONTINUES TO SIGNAL INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ENERGY SLIPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIGHT LEAD TO THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES CONCENTRATING FARTHER INLAND AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. THE NEAR 50 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE SHEAR AXIS FAVORING SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
PWAT VALUES FROM THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST MAINLY 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH VALUES
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT NOTHING OF
THE SCALE SEEN FROM THE SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION FROM EARLY
JULY.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE WILL BE INCREASING ATTENTION TOWARD THIS
REGION AS THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECM SEEM TO SUGGEST A SLOW
RECOVERY BACK TO UPPER RIDGE DOMINANCE AND POTENTIALLY A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THIS PATTERN BY
FRIDAY. WE'LL HOLD OFF MAKING ANY CHANGES INTO THAT PART OF THE
EXTENDED FOR NOW AND SEE IF THE WEAK WAVE FEATURE SURVIVES THE
NEXT MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE RAMPING UP RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THERE'S ALWAYS A GOOD CHANCE THE 00Z CYCLES WERE A
WET OUTLIER, LEADING TO INCONSISTENT FORECASTING. ALSO, THE MEX
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TO MESH WITH THE LESS STABLE PATTERN, SO
THE ECM BASED GUIDANCE WOULD MAKE MORE SENSE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
VFR SKIES TO PERSIST FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHRA COULD FORM JUST EAST OF I-35 AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR
SHIFTY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR A 2-4 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. THE
REST OF THE WINDS AND SKY WILL RESEMBLE A TYPICAL SLOW DIURNAL TREND
FOR MID-AUGUST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 97 76 96 76 / 20 0 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 74 96 75 / 20 0 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 73 97 73 / 20 10 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 94 73 / 0 0 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 100 78 / 0 0 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 96 75 / 10 0 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 97 73 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 97 73 / 20 0 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 95 74 95 74 / 20 10 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 97 75 97 76 / 20 10 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 99 75 98 76 / 20 10 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...TRAN
LONG-TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...18
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